Final Bracket – 03.11.180

by Crimson Cast on March 11, 2018 in

It’s time to publish my final bracket guess for this cycle. I’d like to thank Davidson for taking at least one of the bubble teams out of consideration. Here’s what we’ve got.

Last Four In: Texas, USC, Oklahoma, St. Mary’s

I went through a lot of soul-searching and evaluation of the teams involved in this process, and as you’ve probably noticed, it’s been hard to settle on a consistent bottom part of the at-large field. That is largely due to the extreme differences between the resumes, and a general uncertainty about whether the selection committee will favor top wins, or favor breadth and depth of metrics, or somehow try to split the baby (which they have been known to do in the past). I don’t think Texas and Oklahoma should really be this low, but I have a hard time seeing the committee moving them ahead of the teams right in front of them on the S-Curve. USC is another one that’s hard to figure — their power numbers say “we should be higher”, but they have zero wins vs at-large teams in the field and should be sweating a lot more than most people should think. I’m very dissatisfied with St. Mary’s as my last team in, but I find it impossible to believe that the committee is going to leave out a 28-win team with a middling SOS who won at Gonzaga. I feel like any of the first four teams left out are better than St Mary’s, but I doubt it will matter.

First Four Out: Louisville, Oklahoma State, Syracuse, Marquette

At the end of the day, I ended up backing Oklahoma State out of the field. Their best wins are impressive, and they don’t really have bad losses, but they have so many losses. And their non-conference SOS is not something that the committee traditionally likes to reward. And their RPI would be the lowest ever for an entrant into the field as an at-large. I think they probably get in without San Diego State and Davidson stealing bids. Louisville also came close, but they ultimately didn’t have enough wins of note. Syracuse and Marquette were very close as well, and Syracuse’s SOS almost saved them in my eyes, but again, not enough wins.

Bracket:

Bracket notes:

  • I am wagering that the committee will pump up the seeding for Arizona (who really should be a 4) and Providence (who’s probably in the 9-10 range) purely due to their conference tournament performances.
  • I think the AAC title game is happening too late to affect either Cincinnati or Houston’s seeding. I also don’t think that Tennessee would’ve moved up to the two line even if they’d beaten Kentucky.
  • Biggest teams I’m uncertain of in terms of their seed: Alabama (how much do they get rewarded?), Florida State, Kansas State, Missouri (does the DWI affect them?), Davidson, North Carolina State, USC.
  • For the final one seed, I think the committee will opt for Xavier’s relatively pristine record over giving it to a 10-loss UNC team. And there’s no reasonable argument for giving it to Duke over UNC at this point.

S-Curve (1-68 rank):

Rk. Team Conf.
1 Virginia ACC
2 Villanova Big East
3 Kansas Big Twelve
4 Xavier Big East
5 North Carolina ACC
6 Duke ACC
7 Cincinnati American
8 Purdue Big Ten
9 Tennessee SEC
10 Michigan Big Ten
11 West Virginia Big Twelve
12 Arizona Pac 12
13 Auburn SEC
14 Michigan State Big Ten
15 Texas Tech Big Twelve
16 Wichita State American
17 Clemson ACC
18 Gonzaga West Coast
19 Kentucky SEC
20 Ohio State Big Ten
21 Houston American
22 Florida SEC
23 TCU Big Twelve
24 Miami ACC
25 Texas A&M SEC
26 Arkansas SEC
27 Providence Big East
28 Seton Hall Big East
29 Virginia Tech ACC
30 Butler Big East
31 Rhode Island Atlantic Ten
32 North Carolina State ACC
33 Nevada Mountain West
34 Missouri SEC
35 Florida State ACC
36 Kansas State Big Twelve
37 Alabama SEC
38 Creighton Big East
39 UCLA Pac 12
40 St. Bonaventure Atlantic Ten
41 Texas Big Twelve
42 USC Pac 12
43 Oklahoma Big Twelve
44 St. Mary’s West Coast
45 Loyola-Chicago Missouri Valley
46 New Mexico State WAC
47 South Dakota State Summit League
48 San Diego State Mountain West
49 Davidson Atlantic Ten
50 Buffalo Mid-American
51 Murray State Ohio Valley
52 UNC Greensboro Southern
53 Charleston Colonial
54 Bucknell Patriot League
55 Montana Big Sky
56 Marshall Conference USA
57 Wright State Horizon
58 Lipscomb Atlantic Sun
59 Stephen F. Austin Southland
60 Pennsylvania Ivy League
61 Iona Metro Atlantic
62 Georgia State Sun Belt
63 CS Fullerton Big West
64 UMBC America East
65 Radford Big South
66 LIU Brooklyn Northeast
67 Texas Southern SWAC
68 North Carolina Central MEAC

Bracket Update – 03.10.18 before the games0

by Crimson Cast on March 10, 2018 in

After a fun day of basketball on Friday, we’re locked and loaded for the last 30 or so hours of action. We’ve had a couple of changes since yesterday, so let’s get right to it.

Last Four In: St. Mary’s, UCLA, Baylor, USC

Alabama moves out of the Last Four In and safely into the field with their neutral court demolition of Auburn, and that ends up pushing St. Mary’s down into the Last Four In. At this point, I think St. Mary’s (and St. Bonaventure, for that matter) are safe in the field — we’re just nitpicking resumes for the final couple of spots. For the last three spots, you’ll notice that USC moved back in as the last team in the field. Much as I’m not excited about USC’s resume, I think the argument is there for them to get in ahead of Marquette. Better power numbers, more Tier 1 and Tier 2 wins, comparable strength of schedule, and USC has advanced to the Pac 12 Title Game, while Marquette lost early. I also think that Arizona State has likely fallen out of the Last Four In.

First Four Out: Marquette, Arizona State, Louisville, Syracuse

All of these teams have the same thing in common – they can no longer help themselves.

Next Four Out: Notre Dame, Oregon, Penn State, Mississippi State

No changes here.

Notes:

  • It’s incredibly close between UNC, Duke, and Xavier for the 4-5-6 spots in the S-curve. UNC is a tough sell to me personally as a 1 seed because of their nine losses, but they have an objectively better resume than Xavier, and they’ve beaten Duke two out of three times. So I’ve got them fourth, Xavier fifth, and Duke sixth, which ends up working well for bracketing purposes
  • What to do with Michigan State? Do we seed them on their power numbers (among the best in the country) or on their Tier 1 wins (far fewer than the teams around them)? I’ve still got them (barely) as a 3 seed, but wouldn’t be shocked to see them as a 4.
  • Auburn probably should fall to a 4 seed.
  • I’m not sure how secure Nevada really is at this point. Their resume is a mixed bag at best. Only one win against an at-large caliber team, but their power numbers are strong. They look a lot like St. Mary’s and St. Bonaventure right now, with the notable exception that they won the MWC regular season title while the other two did not.

Bracket Update – 03.09.18 before the games0

by Crimson Cast on March 9, 2018 in

We’re back after a two-day hiatus. Lots of little changes, and I keep zeroing in on various aspects of the S-Curve and finding conflicts to resolve. As a result, there have been some shifts in a couple of areas, which I’ll detail below the bracket.

Last Four In: UCLA, Baylor, Arizona State, Alabama

UCLA’s resume is buoyed by a couple of key early-season victories, plus acceptable power numbers. If they beat Arizona they’ll be safely in the field. Baylor blew a chance to demonstrate any sort of desire to enter the tournament with their loss yesterday, but I still think their overall profile gets them in. Arizona State is hanging on by a thread, and can’t help itself anymore. Alabama is tricky — they have a lot of really good wins, and while their resume is very heavy on home victories, they also now have a neutral court win vs A&M and a road win vs Florida, and both of those wins are superior to what Marquette or Louisville have. They also have 14 losses already, and it’s tough to see a 15-loss team getting into the field. Winning today vs Auburn would solve a lot of the remaining questions about their place.

First Four Out: Marquette, Louisville, USC, Syracuse

Unfortunately for the Eagles and Cards, they are on the outside looking in. Lots of people have USC in, but the more I look at their resume, the more I don’t like it. If Middle Tennessee doesn’t get an at-large bid (and they won’t), then USC will have zero wins against teams who got into the field on their own merits (New Mexico State doesn’t count). So for USC, I think it’s either win the Pac 12 or miss the tournament — a neutral court win vs Oregon isn’t going to get you anywhere. Syracuse is close, but can’t help themselves anymore.

Next Four Out: Notre Dame, Oregon, Penn State, Mississippi State

Notre Dame came relatively close, but despite good power numbers and road/neutral record, they just haven’t shown enough on balance this season. Oregon doesn’t really have a path to the tournament as an at-large; their best bet is to win the Pac 12. Penn State isn’t going anywhere. Mississippi State has a razor-thin margin for getting in, but it’s going to require getting to the SEC title game and then losing to someone good.

Here’s some bracket things to note:

  • I really like Duke’s chances at a 1 seed. If they beat UNC I think they’ll definitely get the fourth 1 seed ahead of Xavier. I don’t see North Carolina getting a 1 seed, though. Even with a bevy of quadrant 1 wins, UNC still has nine losses on the year.
  • Michigan finally moved one slot ahead of Michigan State on my S-curve, which is why the Wolverines are in Detroit and MSU is in Wichita. I keep looking for the the big wins on MSU’s resume and I can’t find them.
  • Auburn could still move ahead of Purdue if they can win the SEC Tournament and beat Tennessee along the way.
  • Cincinnati is probably stuck on the 2 line.
  • Xavier can move back on the 1 line if they beat Villanova on a neutral floor — that would probably be enough to get them back ahead of Duke.
  • I’m most curious where the committee decides to put Nevada and Rhode Island at this point. Their resumes are RPI-bloated but don’t really hold up very well beyond that.

Bracket Update – 03.06.180

by Crimson Cast on March 6, 2018 in

Here’s a tip, kids — never bracket when tired and/or sick. I made a mistake and didn’t get all my team sheets refreshed last night, so as a result I left Marquette out of the equation entirely. They are back in now, so please, people of Milwaukee, accept my apologies.

Now that the sheets are refreshed, there hasn’t been that much shifting since yesterday. Here are the notable changes:

  • I’ve still got Duke on the 1 line (in opposition to most of the rest of the bracketing world at this point), but I believe their recent play, combined with their predictive rankings and quality of wins, will land them there on Sunday, barring an unforeseen upset in the ACC tournament, or someone right below them getting hot. I did move Xavier back to the 1 line, so now Kansas is the 5th overall team on the S-curve.
  • Wichita State and Gonzaga both felt underrated to me, so they’re up a bit, at the expense of Texas Tech.
  • St. Mary’s ended up both hurting and helping themselves yesterday. The loss to BYU bumped BYU up to a Tier 1 win for St. Mary’s, although that may go away quickly given how badly Gonzaga obliterated the Cougars in the WCC title game. Meanwhile, St. Mary’s overall resume looks pretty bad. Lots of wins against nobody of note, and I’m not sure their power rankings are going to save them. Right now they’re still in, but if some bubble teams get hot, I could see them sliding into the play-in games…or out of the field entirely.

 

Last Four In: Oklahoma State, Marquette, USC, UCLA

I heard Lunardi say that Oklahoma State needed to beat Kansas again to even have a shot. I don’t understand why. They have seven wins against at-large caliber teams in the field, and their losses are all tier 1 or tier 2. Plus they have a season sweep of a team that’s a borderline 1 seed. Their power metrics are slightly lower than some of their bubble competitors, but what other bubble team features that kind of resume? None. As for the rest — Marquette deserves their current place here, but needs to avoid a bad loss in the Big East tournament. Like, don’t lose to DePaul on Wednesday. That would be a bad idea.

First Four Out: Louisville, Syracuse, Providence, Alabama

Syracuse won a game they couldn’t afford to lose, so…good for them. That’s not going to be enough, since Wake Forest is a tier 3 win. Louisville will probably move past both USC and UCLA if they can beat Florida State on a neutral floor. Providence and Alabama have ample opportunities to play themselves in.

Next Four Out: LSU, Boise State, Utah, Penn State

Instead of talking about who’s on this list, let’s talk about who isn’t: Notre Dame. For some reason, the Irish have become the cause celebre of Joe Lunardi this week as a potential at-large. While I would never say anything is impossible with the NCAA selection committee, it’d be pretty surprising if they somehow vaulted the Irish past a bunch of teams that have actually played decently during conference play and placed them in the tournament. Even a win vs Virginia Tech tomorrow probably won’t be enough to get the Irish into the last 4 in.

Bracket Update – 03.05.180

by Crimson Cast on March 5, 2018 in

The bracket is back after a bit of a hiatus due to the Big Ten Tournament. Lots of changes since we last did this one. This includes all games that finished as of 11:15 PM on Monday 3/5. All we’re waiting on is St. Mary’s, and a loss there would probably only drop them a seed line, so we’ll just run with this.

Last Four In: Oklahoma State, USC, UCLA, Louisville

I’m expecting this group to be incredibly fluid throughout the next five days, because there are hardly any margins separating these teams (or, for that matter, the teams above them and below them). Oklahoma State is impossible to ignore, given their Kansas sweep and overall profile. USC and UCLA have just the right combo of power ratings and not-terrible wins to boost them above some of their competition. Louisville really needs to not lose against Florida State, and then also hope that the teams below them on the bubble don’t win more impressive games than that.

Last Four Out: Syracuse, Alabama, LSU, Providence

Syracuse needs to win games as well, and they may end up with a slightly easier path to getting into the field than Louisville. Alabama needs to show a pulse, first and foremost. Then win a game of import away from Tuscaloosa. LSU needs to go on a run. Providence is an odd team to figure – they might be safely in, they might be this far out. I am very unimpressed with their overall profile. Three losses in Tier 4, including one just a couple weeks ago at home, plus a composite power ranking that just doesn’t look favorable versus the teams they are competing against.

Next Four Out: Boise State, Utah, Penn State, Mississippi State

Penn State did themselves some favors in the Big Ten tournament, but not enough favors. Now they sit for a week while teams get to impress the committee. Boise State better hope that they just win the Mountain West.

Bracket Update – 02.26.180

by Crimson Cast on February 26, 2018 in

New bracket! A lot of movement with some of the teams in the middle of the pack, but it feels like the top of the field is starting to solidify. I’m still not totally sure how to evaluate the mass of SEC teams, or the group of teams in general between the 3 line and the 6 line, but that will probably play itself out fairly clearly as the week progresses.

Last Four In: Baylor, Louisville, USC, Syracuse

Baylor drops into the L4I mostly because Texas did better than the Bears this week. Louisville shoots back into the field because of their win at Virginia Tech and their lack of bad losses. USC took care of business on the road against a Utah team that’s competing for a spot themselves, and Syracuse…well, they are lucky to be in the field.

Last Four Out: UCLA, Providence, Utah, Mississippi State

The Bruins were in, and then they lost at Colorado, and ultimately they have very little to show for their season. Providence is just so unimpressive power numbers-wise that it’s hard to get excited about them, although I could see the committee putting them in on the strength of their Q1 and Q2 wins alone. Utah is bumping around with the rest of the teams in the Pac 12, trying to find footing. Mississippi State has 21 wins and almost none of them are even remotely impressive.

Bracket Update – 02.24.18 pregame0

by Crimson Cast on February 24, 2018 in

Here’s the bracket update from right before the start of the Saturday games. Only one at large change in the field, as Providence slid off the bubble and Marquette took their place.

Last Four In: Texas, Syracuse, LSU, Marquette

First Four Out: Providence, Utah, USC, Temple

Bracket Update – 02.19.180

by Crimson Cast on February 19, 2018 in

The games are all done for the weekend, and so here’s where we stand heading into next week. I went through and scrubbed some lines, and re-evaluated my stance on a few teams, which is why you see a decent amount of shuffling in this bracket from the previous one. I also decided to move UCLA out of the field and bring LSU in as the last at-large, and move Baylor (barely) into the safe part of the field and drop Providence into the last four in.

Cincinnati’s loss to Wichita State brought the two teams closer, with Wichita now on the 4 line and Cincinnati on the 3. Duke’s victory over Clemson gives them a much-needed tier-1 win and moves them ahead of Purdue, but that’s just a selection thing and not a seeding thing, since both are on the 2 line as of now.

Florida State drops a bit in this projection, but even here as a 6 seed, they’re still higher in my bracket than what you see in the Bracket Matrix average. I am not sure why everyone else has them rated so low. It’s the opposite situation with Arkansas — they are a consensus 8 seed in Bracket Matrix, but I had them as an 11 in the last bracket, and a 10 in this one, and it’s hard to see the argument for moving them much beyond that.

Lots of games left! Lots of time for things to switch around.

So here’s where we stand:

Last Four In: Providence, Texas, Syracuse, LSU

First Four Out: UCLA, USC, Utah, Temple

Bracket update – 2/18/18 Before the Games0

by Crimson Cast on February 18, 2018 in

Here’s the post-Saturday, pre-Sunday bracket update. I will have another update after today’s slate of games.

Last Four In: Baylor, Texas, Syracuse, UCLA

First Four our: Utah, Temple, Louisville, USC

Others in consideration: Penn State, Washington, Marquette, Nebraska

Because of how the play-in games have to be set in this version of the bracket, two teams (New Mexico State and Middle Tennessee) got elevated up a seed line.

 

1 Virginia
1 Villanova
1 Xavier
1 Kansas
2 Texas Tech
2 North Carolina
2 Cincinnati
2 Purdue
3 Auburn
3 Duke
3 Michigan State
3 Arizona
4 Clemson
4 West Virginia
4 Tennessee
4 Gonzaga
5 Wichita State
5 Ohio State
5 Florida State
5 Nevada
6 Rhode Island
6 Creighton
6 Kentucky
6 Texas A&M
7 TCU
7 Florida
7 Missouri
7 Oklahoma
8 Alabama
8 Butler
8 Arizona State
8 Michigan
9 Miami
9 Houston
9 Seton Hall
9 St. Mary’s
10 Virginia Tech
10 North Carolina State
10 Kansas State
10 Providence
11 St. Bonaventure
11 Arkansas
12 Baylor
12 Texas
12 Syracuse
12 UCLA
11 New Mexico State
11 MTSU
12 Vermont
12 Loyola-Chicago
13 Louisiana
13 Murray State
13 ETSU
13 Montana
14 South Dakota State
14 Buffalo
14 UC Santa Barbara
14 Bucknell
15 Rider
15 Florida Gulf Coast
15 Charleston
15 Winthrop
16 Wright State
16 Pennsylvania
16 Wagner
16 Nicholls State
16 Savannah State
16 Southern

Bracketology 02.11.180

by Crimson Cast on February 11, 2018 in

Time to fire the bracketology machine up once again. Here’s the field, first in bracket form, then in seed form. Last 4 in/out are below that.

I made some alterations to my very first bracket (from yesterday, which I did not post), taking into account both the selection committee’s published “Top 16”, and accounting for the implications that I felt like those seedings had on the field’s composition and seeding.

Biggest changes — Temple got back into my field, St. Bonaventure barely beat out Syracuse and USC, and Texas A&M’s stock rose quite a bit (while Michigan and Texas saw their stock fall).

 

1 Virginia
1 Villanova
1 Xavier
1 Purdue
2 Auburn
2 Kansas
2 Duke
2 Cincinnati
3 Clemson
3 Texas Tech
3 Michigan State
3 North Carolina
4 Tennessee
4 Ohio State
4 Arizona
4 Oklahoma
5 West Virginia
5 Gonzaga
5 Creighton
5 Wichita State
6 Texas A&M
6 Florida
6 Rhode Island
6 Kentucky
7 TCU
7 Nevada
7 Butler
7 Miami
8 Florida State
8 Arizona State
8 St. Mary’s
8 Seton Hall
9 Middle Tennessee
9 Missouri
9 Michigan
9 Alabama
10 Virginia Tech
10 New Mexico State
10 Houston
10 Texas
11 Kansas State
11 Providence
11 North Carolina State
11 Louisville
11 Baylor
12 Arkansas
12 Temple
12 St. Bonaventure
12 Loyola-Chicago
12 Vermont
13 Louisiana
13 Buffalo
13 ETSU
13 Rider
14 South Dakota State
14 Charleston
14 UC Santa Barbara
14 Montana
15 Murray State
15 Northern Kentucky
15 Bucknell
15 Wagner
16 UNC-Asheville
16 Florida Gulf Coast
16 Penn
16 Nicholls State
16 North Carolina A&T
16 Arkansas Pine Bluff

Last 4 in: Louisville, Baylor, Temple, St. Bonaventure

First 4 out: Syracuse, USC, Washington, Marquette

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