CrimsonCast Live 12/4/130

by Galen on December 4, 2013 in , , ,

On this edition of CrimsonCast Live, we recap the #iubb game vs Syracuse and talk about the issues that presented themselves during that contest, including:

  • The somewhat surprising struggles throughout the game on defense
  • The overall lack of identity for IU on either end of the floor
  • The relative lack of surprise at the loss to a very good Syracuse team
  • The surprise at the post-game reaction from Crean
  • The dismaying lack of timeouts throughout the difficult stretch of the second half

We also talk a bit about what the near future holds for this IU team, and how we may not learn very much about this squad from now until the start of the Big Ten campaign.

CrimsonCast Live Dec 4 2013 [ 42:28 ] Play Now | Play in Popup | Download (252)

Scheduling Issues Could Hurt IU’s At-Large Chances2

by Galen on November 25, 2013 in ,

The season is still very young for the Indiana Hoosiers, and as of today (11/25/13) they are guaranteed to play at least 26 more games. But this past weekend’s loss to UConn in the 2k Sports Classic may have been more damaging to the NCAA tournament prospects of this IU team than most fans and media realize.

Quality Is Job One

There are several reasons why some fans and observers have complained about IU’s weak non-conference schedule. Many of the complaints have surrounded a lack of premier basketball matchups at home in the non-conference portion of the schedule. But a more concerning aspect of the weak schedule is the lack of quality out of conference (OOC) opponents, and the implication that this lack of quality may have on the way the NCAA selection committee evaluates the candidacy of IU as an at-large NCAA tournament team.

For those who are unfamiliar with the way the NCAA committee evaluates such teams, here’s a refresher course. The tournament is comprised of 68 teams, with 31 of those teams coming from eligible conferences’ automatic berths. There are 37 additional at-large teams selected for the field, and those teams are selected largely on their quality wins, both in-conference and OOC. However, the OOC wins tend to carry more weight with the committee, and this fact has bitten some Big Ten teams in the past when Selection Sunday arrives. Also important are the location of the victories, with neutral and road court victories given far greater weight than the equivalent victory at home.

Let’s start by looking at the current games on the schedule for IU, both OOC and in conference play. While it is impossible to predict with 100% accuracy which teams will be adjudged as quality opponents, we can project to some degree based upon teams’ current Pomeroy rankings. We’ll count a “quality win” as any team ranked 50th or better from a top 10 conference, or any team ranked 30th or better from a team outside the top 10 conferences (Please note that the selection committee will be using a combination of RPI ranking and other data points, including bad losses, empirical observation, and advanced metrics).

Here is a current list of such teams on IU’s schedule:

vs UConn (L)

at Syracuse

vs Notre Dame (*I’m cheating here, because technically Notre Dame isn’t in the KenPom Top 50 right now)

That’s it, actually. Washington is a poor team and will not help with IU’s OOC resume. Evansville is slightly better than Washington, but certainly not “quality” — and that game is played at Assembly Hall. Even Stony Brook, who was considered a higher-quality opponent, is only 92nd in the KenPom rankings, and is unlikely to climb much further given their remaining non-conference schedule.

Where’s The Quality Coming From?

On Friday night after the UConn game, I posed a question on Twitter, which asked where everyone thought the quality wins would be coming from that would bolster IU’s tournament resume. Most people said “We play in the Big Ten, we’ll pick up enough quality wins there.”

Indiana does have several games against top-50 opponents in-conference, including:

Michigan State 2x (4th in KenPom)

Ohio State at home (5th in KenPom)

Iowa at home (13th in KenPom)

Wisconsin 2x (14th in KenPom)

Minnesota away (17th in KenPom)

Michigan 2x (21st in KenPom)

Illinois 2x (29th in KenPom)

It is not likely that all seven of those conference teams will make the tournament field, which makes it likely that at least one or two of them won’t end up as “quality opponents”. It’s also not likely that a young IU team will be able to repeat its in-conference performance from last season, and is worth noting that even last year’s team still lost games at Illinois and Minnesota while losing at home to Ohio State and Wisconsin.

And unfortunately, Big Ten quality wins alone may not be enough to get IU into the tournament.

If you look at the history of at-large team selections in the Big Ten during the past decade, what you find is a surprisingly large group of teams that finished with 20+ wins, within a game of .500 in conference, and yet still were not selected for the NCAA tournament as at-large teams. For comparison’s sake, let’s list out each of the teams that fall under that classification from 2004-2013:

2004 Michigan 23-11 overall, 8-8 in conference, KenPom 35
Quality OOC wins: NCST
Quality IC wins: WISC

2006 Michigan: 22-11 overall, 8-8 in conference, KenPom 31
Quality OOC wins: BUTLER, MIA, at Notre Dame
Quality IC wins: ILL, WISC, MSU

2007 Iowa: 17-14 overall, 9-7 in conference, KenPom 68
Quality OOC wins: None
Quality IC wins: MSU, IND, PUR, ILL

2007 Michigan: 22-13 overall, 8-8 in conference, KenPom 58
Quality OOC wins: DAV
Quality IC wins: ILL, PUR, IND, MSU

2008 Minnesota: 20-14 overall, 8-10 in conference, KenPom 81
Quality OOC wins: None
Quality IC wins: OSU, vs Ind

2008 Ohio State: 24-13 overall, 10-8 in conference, KenPom 30
Quality OOC wins: FLA, vs Syracuse
Quality IC wins: MSU, PUR, at Ill, ILL

2009 Penn State: 27-11 overall, 10-8 in conference, KenPom 52
Quality OOC wins: None
Quality IC wins: at MSU, at Ill, ILL, PUR, MICH, MIN

2010 Illinois: 21-15 overall, 10-8 in conference, KenPom 56
Quality OOC wins: at Clem, VAN, WOF
Quality IC wins: at Wisc, MSU, vs Wisc

2012 Northwestern: 19-14 overall, 8-10 in conference, KenPom 66
Quality OOC wins: None
Quality IC wins: MSU

2013 Iowa: 25-13 overall, 9-9 in conference, KenPom 25
Quality OOC wins: IOWA ST, vs Northern Iowa
Quality IC wins: WISC, MIN, ILL

This isn’t a phenomenon limited to Big Ten teams, either. We’ve seen several teams across the country fall into this same situation, with unfortunate results. Here’s a list of teams from outside the Big Ten in that vein from the past few seasons:

2013 Kentucky: 21-12 overall, 12-6 in conference, KenPom 67
Quality OOC wins: vs Maryland* (Top 50 but not an NCAA team)
Quality IC wins: FLA, MIZ, at Miss

2013 Virginia: 23-12 overall, 11-7 in conference, KenPom 40
Quality OOC wins: at Wisc
Quality IC wins: UNC, NCST, DUKE

2013 Maryland: 25-13 overall, 8-10 in conference, KenPom 48
Quality OOC wins: None
Quality IC wins: NCST, DUKE

2013 Baylor: 23-14 overall, 9-9 in conference, KenPom 29
Quality OOC wins: None
Quality IC wins: KAN, OSU

2012 Stanford: 26-11 overall, 10-8 in conference, KenPom 36
Quality OOC wins: NCST
Quality IC wins: CAL

2012 Miami: 20-13 overall, 9-7 in conference, KenPom 50
Quality OOC wins: None
Quality IC wins: at Duke, FSU

2011 New Mexico: 22-13 overall, 8-8 in conference, KenPom 44
Quality OOC wins: vs Colorado
Quality IC wins: BYU, at BYU

2011 Virginia Tech: 22-12 overall, 9-7 in conference, KenPom 45
Quality OOC wins: PSU
Quality IC wins: FSU, DUKE, vs FSU

2011 Alabama: 25-12 overall, 12-4 in conference, KenPom 47
Quality OOC wins: None
Quality IC wins: UK, at Tenn, UGA, vs UGA

2010 Virginia Tech: 25-9 overall, 10-6 in conference, KenPom 43
Quality OOC wins: None
Quality IC wins: at GT, CLEM, WAKE

As you can see, teams that rely on in-conference victories with a dearth of OOC quality wins have tended to be in trouble. There have obviously been a few exceptions, particularly if teams have scheduled very well outside of conference but have lost a lot of those games. The tournament selection committee has been known to reward unfulfilled ambition. Unfortunately, most of the teams listed above scheduled very weakly, and that guaranteed very little leniency from the committee. My concern is that IU’s weak non-conference scheduling, coupled with a lack of victories in the key games, could leave them in a similar situation.

The Margins Are Thin

Just to clarify, I am not saying that IU isn’t going to make the tournament. It’s entirely possible that the team could finish with 11 wins or more in the Big Ten, which would almost certainly assure an at-large bid. It’s entirely possible that the team competes for the Big Ten regular season title, or wins the Big Ten tournament.

But I am saying that IU fans shouldn’t shrug their shoulders at losses to UConn, Syracuse, or Notre Dame. It is quite likely that those will be our only three quality win opportunities outside of the conference, and the track record for near-.500 teams in the Big Ten trying to get into the NCAA tournament while lacking any quality OOC wins is poor. If winning at Syracuse is considered to be a bridge too far for a young IU team, then the Notre Dame game looms large as a potential must-win contest in terms of tournament resume strength.

 

CrimsonCast Live – 11/16/130

by Galen on November 17, 2013 in , , , ,

CC Header Trial - BrightOn this episode of CrimsonCast LIVE, we dissect yet another splattering of the IU football team as they lose in Madison 51-3 for the 94th consecutive year. We talk about the shortcomings on both sides of the ball, and whether there’s any point in even turning the television on next weekend when the team travels to Columbus.

We also discuss IU basketball in-depth, as we give an overview of the LIU-Brooklyn and Samford yin-yang games and our impressions of both the players and the coaching strategy thus far in the season. We also preview the Stony Brook game tomorrow, as well as give our predictions for the 2k Sports Classic next week in New York City.

CrimsonCast Live Nov 17 2013 [ 1:08:15 ] Play Now | Play in Popup | Download (492)

Pre-Game Meal: Week 100

by Mike - @Mike_Petry on November 15, 2013 in , ,

Indiana Hoosiers (4-5,2-3) vs. Wisconsin Badgers (7-2,4-1)

WisconsinBadgers

Series History: Wisconsin leads 39-18-2.  On a completely unrelated note, I’m sure it’s just a coincidence that I find it much easier to find all the Series history notes in the opponents game notes.

Last Time the Two Teams met: While not quite the cover your eyes, hide your children ugliness of the previous two games in the series, it was nevertheless undoubtedly a good ole fashioned butt whooping last year in Bloomington.  The Badgers bludgeoned IU 62-14 ruining an otherwise delightful fall afternoon.

What did we learn last week:  Mainly we learned what we already knew. The offense can score a boatload of points. The Defense is not very good. Hiring a successful MAC coach

Latimerdoes not in fact guarantee success.  The bright spots for IU were mainly on the offensive side of the ball, but on the whole, I was most pleased with an improvement in the mindset of the team. They overcame the 2nd quarter doldrems,   fought back from some self inflicted adversity,  and in the end cruised to a 17 point victory that most reasonable fans would have expected going in. ut  Also,  I know IU football’s had it’s struggles, but naming Cody Lattimer a POW sounds a little harsh.

So what’s coming this week: Running backs. Lots and lots of running backs. Last year,  the Badgers almost had 3 separate 100 yard rushers as Montee Ball had 198 yards,  James White ran for 161, and Melvin Gordon tacked on 96 yards(on 8 carries).  White and Gordon return this year along with sophomore quarterback Joel Stave who is likely to throw the ball more than the 7 attempts Curt Phillips had in last year’s tilt.

Defensively, Wisconsin is once again stout as the Badgers rank 10th in the NCAA at only 295 yards per game.  This is a strength versus strength game, but will likely be decided by the fact that Wisconsin’s weaker side,  is much much much better than IU’s.

So any hope for the home team: Well IU’s definitely picked up the pace on scoring lots of points. Unfortunately, the defensive charge to suck less has not really been as fruitful as we’d like. If Wisconsin scores in the 40′s, IU has a chance.  Unfotunately, I doubt the Badgers stop at 49, and maybe not even 59.

Scouting Future Opponents:

The Ohio State University  travels to Illinois.

Purdue heads to Happy Valley to take on Penn State.

CrimsonCast Live – 11/10/130

by Galen on November 11, 2013 in , , ,

CC Header Trial - BrightOn this episode of CrimsonCast Live, we look at IU Football’s scrambling victory against Illinois, while simultaneously lamenting the absence of excitement surrounding the program as it stares bowl ineligibility in the face for yet another season. We talk a bit about the state of the defense (600 MORE YARDS SURRENDERED), the disposition of the coaching staff, and the seemingly dim prospects of a happy round trip to Madtown.

We then move on to IU basketball, and talk about a game that only one of us had seen up to that point. Discussions (or monologues) ensued surrounding the head-and-shoulders superiority of Noah Vonleh and Troy Williams to the rest of the freshman crop, the curiosity of Jeremy Hollowell, and the lingering disappointment that stemmed from a lack of consistent minutes for the probable starting unit against Chicago State. We also take a brief look ahead to the upcoming triad of non-major competition facing the Hoosiers in the next seven day period.

CrimsonCast Live Nov 10 2013 [ 51:40 ] Play Now | Play in Popup | Download (383)

CrimsonCast Live – Minnesota football recap0

by Galen on November 3, 2013 in , , ,

CC Header Trial - BrightOn this (rather depressing) #iufb CrimsonCast Live, we spend time talking about the collapse of IU football’s easy path to a bowl game, and try to figure out exactly why Minnesota bested the Hoosiers 42-39. A lot of talk is devoted to the defensive shortcomings of the team, and we chat about the disposition of the defensive coaching staff in relation to that. We also talk about the offensive struggles, in particular the decision to start (and stick with) Tre Roberson at QB and the highly questionable playcalling decisions on the last offensive play for IU.

CrimsonCast Nov 3 2013 [ 1:08:00 ] Play Now | Play in Popup | Download (348)

CrimsonCast LIVE – Basketball and Football previews Nov 1 130

by Galen on November 1, 2013 in , , , ,

My seats for last night's game :)

On this episode of CrimsonCast, we once again take to the video airwaves to answer your questions and talk about your thoughts regarding both IU basketball and IU football. On the roundball front, we spend some time talking about the surprise James Blackmon commitment, the current recruiting situation, and the oversign possibilities into next year. We also give our general preview of this upcoming season, and talk about what we saw in the preseason game and how those pieces will fit together on the court, including the improvement of Yogi Ferrell and the importance of Jeremy Hollowell.

For football, we look at the overall situation with IU’s defensive squad and what it will take to have a successful season. The importance of these two upcoming games are talked about at length, as are the defensive shortcomings of the team and how they compare with some of Minnesota’s other opponents this season. We also look at Minnesota from a 40,000 foot perspective, and talk about the mentality of that team coming into Memorial Stadium this weekend.

You can watch the video of the show above, or listen to the audio-only podcast version below. Thanks for tuning in!

CrimsonCast Live Nov 1 2013 [ 1:12:23 ] Play Now | Play in Popup | Download (457)

Pre-Game Meal Week 8: A gopher?0

by Mike - @Mike_Petry on November 1, 2013 in , ,

Indiana Hoosiers (3-4,1-2) vs. Minnesota Golden Gophers (6-2,2-2)

Goldy

Goldy is the only mascot adorable enough that the Ewoks take his lunch money

Series History: Minnesota leads the overall series 37-25-3, but is only 6-16-2 in Bloomington.

Last Meeting: The Gophers won 16-7 in an ugly game that is best never mentioned again.

Last IU win: 2007. That glorious year of mediocrity,  the Hoosiers bested Minnesota 40-20 at the Rock.

Kellen Lewis passed for 235 yards and rushed for another 85.  Bryan Payton rushed for 90 yards and 3 touchdowns,  and Ray Fisher had 9 catches for 105 yards.

What did we learn last week: How to ignore Kevin Wilson when he says the responsibility is on an offense that scored 47 points to simply score more.  This offered the latest in a long line of examples how much happier my life is for not ever listening to anything a coach says to the media.  Every single word uttered has a motive beyond truthfully answering a question . Whether it’s to attempt to take pressure off a group that’s underperforming, keep the expectations high for a group that’s performing well, or to make a point about something completely unrelated.  This inevitably leads to a coach completely flipping  around what he may have said earlier,  or defying all logic like Wilson did in the statement above. Trying to glean information off any particular coaches statement will leave you feeling like Lewis Black trying to understand how a horse helped a woman stay in college.

So what about this week: Well the Golden Gophers come to the Rock for the first time in six seasons and until a couple of weeks ago, the program was teetering on the cliff.  A head coach whose health problems come into sharp focus every Saturday, an offense that couldn’t decide what it did best, or well.  A defense that had just given up 42 points to Michigan.  I know it’s hard to imagine how awful a defense must be to give up 42 points to Michigan.  But after coach Jerry Kill made the smart decision to step back and allow Tracy Claeys to serve as acting head coach, the Gophers have rallied around their new coach to the tune of wins over Northwestern and Nebraska.

David Cobb leads a power rushing attack that has scored 19 touchdowns on the ground this season.  Freshman QB Mitch Leidner took the starting spot from Sophomore Phillip Nelson, but neither has had a great deal of success through the air.  Leidner has completed 61% of his passes with a touchdown and an interception. However Leidner has been a more accomplished rusher thus far averaging about 4.5 yards per carry and 6 touchdowns rushing. Rodrick Williams completes the three headed monster of runners that will test IU’s defense.

Defensively, Sophomore DL Thieren Cockran leads all Gophers with 5.5 sacks.

And for the Home team: I haven’t heard as much from the IU camp regarding a quarterback controversy, but it’s clear at this point both Tre Roberson and Nate Sudfeld will play.  Despite my many protests to the contrary, Tre Roberson has played, and played well enough to deserve snaps.  Roberson was 16-23 for 288 yards with 50 yards rushing tacked on is the type of efficient offense that IU needs to keep up with whatever its defense is giving up.

And about the defense: While the Hoosiers have been living up to the Score Lots of Points half of the game plan. Instead of Sucking Less on Defense,  they’ve instead unfortunately sucked more the last two games.   The last time the Hoosiers had a bye week they followed it up with at least a reasonably competent performance against Penn State.  We’ll see if all that’s needed to suck less is to have an extra week to prepare.

Scouting Future Opponents: 

IU’s next three opponents are all on the road and all playing at noon on Saturday.

Illinois visits Happy Valley looking to break a 3 game losing streak against Penn State.

Wisconsin heads to Iowa  after rolling over its last two opponents.

THE Ohio State University takes on Purdue in West Lafayette.

Prediction Time:  Tre Roberson and/or Nate Sudfeld put IU on the scoreboard early and often.   An early lead forces Minnesota to the air where IU is able to manage near competent play as IU wins 42-30.

Not as elite as we want to be0

by Scott - @CrimsonCast on October 22, 2013 in

52-82936-YOver the past two years, the Indiana Basketball program and its fans have taken to the mantra of “We’re Back”.  (This did lead to one of the funnier student moments in last season, when we played at East Lansing and their student section wore shirts that said, “We Never Left”.  I’ll never defend Sparty, but have to admit that did make me chuckle)

Once Christian Watford’s three against Kentucky hit the bottom of the net, it did seem to feel that the tide had turned within the program.  And after back to back Sweet 16 appearances and an outright B1G title, most seem to think that we are back among the elite basketball programs in the country.  Not to take anything away from those accomplishments, but when you are discussing being one of the top 5 or 10 programs in the country, you are looking at success in March with Final Four appearances and National Championships.

Marquette does not have a conference title in the last 2 years, but does have back to back Sweet 16 appearances.  Yet, I wouldn’t consider the last two years as enough to put them back into the discussion of top 5 or 10 programs.  So as a fan base, if we want to consider Indiana Basketball as a current elite program, I believe we have to use a different set of criteria.

There are currently nine schools with 8 or more Final Four appearances:
North Carolina – 18
UCLA – 17
Duke & Kentucky – 15
Kansas – 14
Louisville & Ohio State – 10
Indiana & Michigan State – 8

Not many would argue that these are most of the traditional and current “blue blood” elite basketball programs in the country.  Let’s look a little more in depth at the current success of these teams.  Over the last 21 years, how many Final Fours have they been to?  And over those 21 years, what is their average number of seasons between Final Four seasons?  (I used 21 years instead of 20 so I could benefit the numbers for Indiana)

North Carolina- (8) – 1993, 1995, 1997, 1998, 2000, 2005, 2008, 2009
Once every 2.6 Seasons

UCLA – (4) – 1995, 2006, 2007, 2008
Once every 5.25 Seasons

Kentucky – (6) – 1993, 1996, 1997, 1998, 2011, 2012
Once every 3.5 Seasons

Duke – (6) – 1992, 1994, 1999, 2001, 2004, 2010
Once every 3.5 Seasons

Kansas – (5) – 1993, 2002, 2003, 2008, 2012
Once every 4.2 Seasons

Louisville – (3) – 2005, 2012, 2013
Once every 7 Seasons

Ohio State – (3) – 1999, 2007, 2012
Once every 7 Seasons

Indiana – (2) – 1992, 2002
Once every 10.5 Seasons

Michigan State – (6) – 1999, 2000, 2001, 2005, 2009, 2010
Once every 3.5 Seasons

Comparing Indiana Basketball to the other programs, it does seem as if one of these things is not like the other.  We have the lowest number of Final Fours, and along with Ohio State, we are the only teams on this list not to win a National Championship in this time period.

I will admit that during the last 21 years, we have had some turmoil within the program which does effect our results.  But it is worth noting that during this same time, Kentucky, Louisville & North Carolina all had to replace legendary coaches who brought the schools previous National Championships.  And while Roy Williams did not win a National Championship, it was a big departure when he left Kansas.

I do believe that in the past 21 years Indiana has had to deal with more than any of those schools, although some of it has been self imposed with bad decisions made at many levels.  But it does need to be noted, that we are not the only program that had to replace a successful coach during this period.

If you take an average of the seasons between Final Fours of those nine teams, you get an overall average of 5.2 seasons.  If you take Indiana out of the equation and just average the top eight programs, you get an average of 4.5 seasons.

If, as a fan base, we are going to consider ourselves one of these elite programs, then we have to judge ourselves to the same standards.  If not, we are either delusional or must come to grips with the fact that our current results are not consistent with being in the elite program discussion.

This is not the place to re-hash our rebuilding process.  So let’s just assume that we did, indeed come “back” to the elite level two seasons ago.  That would give us 2 seasons without a Final Four.  Going by the standard set by those elite teams, we would need to get to a Final Four by next season, or the season after, at the latest to keep up with the trend.

We had a Final Four team last year and we did not make it to the Final Four.  This happens at all the elite schools (think: 2009-2010 Kentucky), but those programs re-load and are back in a very short matter of time.

What concerns me is that we can all agree that this season is not a Final Four year.  So again, going off the elite program standard, we should be in the mix for a Final Four in 2014-2015.  I’m not sure that is realistic.  And most would disagree with this statement, but if we aren’t in a Final Four in the next 2-3 years, I think we do have a major problem.  Because that will be 5-6 seasons since we have been back at elite level and it will be 7-8 years into the Crean era.  We will be way off the 4-5 season Final Four average of elite programs.

I do notice that some teams, like Kentucky from 1998 to 2011 or UCLA from 1995 to 2006, had longer than the average 4-5 seasons without a Final Four.  But they also had a National Championship in that span along with consistent Final Four appearance one one side of that span.

Is asking for a Final Four in 2-3 seasons a high expectation?  Yes, it is, but that is what it means to be an elite program and thus have elite goals.  Holding our team to those elite goals does not make us bad fans or “haters”, it just means that we treat this program like an elite program in the country, which is what “We’re Back” means.  I’m going to hold us to the same standard as those elite programs, and I think you should do the same.

 

 

Podcast – Michigan Recap – 10-21-130

by Scott - @CrimsonCast on October 21, 2013 in , ,

CrimsonCast Recap

Scott & Galen review the loss to Michigan, covering such topics as:

  •  Problems with the Defense
  • Should we fire Doug Mallory?
  • Did Sudfeld lose his starting job?
  • How will we fair in the rest of our remaining home games
  • How historically bad our defense is

Remember to send in your questions via Twitter @CrimsonCast and we will answer them on the next recap podcast

Podcast – Michigan Recap – 10-21-13 [ 42:58 ] Play Now | Play in Popup | Download (333)
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