Welcome Jeremy. We hope you enjoy your stay. And Beat Purdue.

When Lawrence Central wing Jeremy Hollowell became the fifth player to commit to Tom Crean’s 2012 Indiana University class, the reaction was powerful if somewhat polarizing. While many IU fans, who have continued happily drinking the Crean and Crimson Kool Aid, celebrated with Twitter messages pondering where to hang the inevitable future banners, a growing minority of Crean skeptics could barely stifle a yawn. After all, the commitment came on a Thursday in which Butler had beaten Wisconsin to clinch its second consecutive Elite 8 appearance, When would IU get back to winning the battles on the court rather than in the recruits living room?  And didn’t IU gain a bunch of commitments last off season? What good is it to recruit these ultra talented players if they won’t get better?

While I understand the skepticism, it’s important to note just how good this incoming recruiting class can be. It’s not out of the realm of possibility that Yogi Farrell, Ron Patterson, Hanner Perea, and Hollowell could all finish in the top 5 of Mr. Indiana basketball voting next year. To get this much in-state talent requires a perfect storm of great players in the same class and an excellent sales pitch by the Indiana program.

To be able to recruit these players while struggling the way the Hoosiers have shows just how hard Crean has had to work, and how fortunate he has been that his message was so well received.

How many top recruits can we fit in here anyway

But what does this recruiting binge prove? Sure it’s nice to get a top 25 class, and to stoke the hope for the future, but does it guarantee success? For a comparison, I looked at the past 5 years of Big Ten teams, the tournament success and the number of  times ranked in the Rivals Top 25 recruiting classes.  

B1G Ten Teams 2006-2010 NCAA Tournament versus Recruiting Rankings
Description Total % of Total
Total Number of Teams examined 55 100%
Teams making NCAA Tournament 28 51%
Teams making Sweet 16 10 18%
Teams making Final Four 3* 5%
Teams with Top 25 Recruiting Class(1 Year) 14 25%
Teams with at least 1 Top 25 Recruiting Class(4 Year) 29 53%
* Total is 3 pending The Ohio State University’s games this weekend where my bracket desperately needs a couple of Buckeye victories

Overall, 28 different teams have made the NCAA tournament. 14 teams have had a top 25 recruiting class, 11 of those teams have made the NCAA tournament that season. Indiana and Illinois in 2009, and THE Ohio State University in 2007 were the only teams to grab a top 25 recruiting class and miss the tournament in the following season.

17 of the 41 teams who didn’t have a top 25  recruiting class did make the tournament. So the odds of making the tournament when you have a top recruiting class are about twice as good as if you don’t have a top 25 class

But of course unless you’re Kentucky, a great recruiting class doesn’t only help in the year it arrives, but it helps the program for up to four years after the former high school hoopsters set foot on campus.

Of the 28 teams to make the tournament, 18 had at least one top 25 class in the previous four years. Outside of Wisconsin -which has made the tournament in each year I looked at, and has not had a single top 25 class in the 7 years of recruiting rankings- the odds of a team with a top class making it are about 3 ½ times better than a team without one.

IU’s goal of course is not to simply get back to the tournament. The goal is to get back and be a regular on the 2nd weekend, to make an occasional foray into the Final Four, and challenge for a 6th banner.

Of the ten B1G Ten Teams to reach the Sweet 16 in the past five years, eigh have had at least one Top 25 recruiting class among their four. Of the three B1G Ten teams to reach the Final Four, (tOSU pending of course) two had a top 25 class in that season, and all three had at least one top 25 class. In fact, if The Ohio State University were to make the Final Four this year, it would continue The Michigan State University’s trend of having 3 top classes when going into the national semi-finals.

So, what does all this statistical gobbledygook mean? I draw three conclusions; 1) It’s easier to win with talent then without. 2) While it’s not impossible for lesser talented teams to make the tournament, it perhaps does put a cap on how far they can go. 3) IU is going to need both more talent and better coaching if it wants to reclaim it’s position on the top ring of NCAA basketball.

I referenced Rivals.com for the site’s recruiting rankings. I appreciate the site’s excellent archive of team rankings.