Isn’t Big Ten season exciting? After a couple months of solid non-conference games, we get to the grittiness that is Big Ten play. Following a triple-header on Big Ten Network last night and including the Illinois-Minnesota battle Tuesday, we’ve learned a lot about all the times, specifically IU. Michigan State exposed a lot of weaknesses, but I’ll cover those in a bit. What we have figured out so far is that we have a very deep conference. This week, Ohio State (2), Wisconsin (11), Indiana (13), Michigan State (16), and Michigan (18) were all ranked in the AP Top 25, and Illinois has been ranked on the season.
So I have decided to give a weekly power ranking for our great conference. The rankings will be based on the premise that if the NCAA Tourney started today, which teams would fare best. It may not necessarily be the best rankings, but they’re my rankings and I’ll run them how I want. So with that being said, I’ll jump right in.
1. Ohio State
Surprise, surprise. Really, it’s no contest. With Jared Sullinger, Ohio State is one of the best team’s in the nation. I grew up a Duke fan (please begin jokes now) and watched them dismantle Duke. It was no contest from the beginning and they would have beaten Duke on a neutral court and probably even in Cameron Indoor Stadium. They have an absolutely perfect blend of role players and stars and it all revolves around Sullinger. Aaron Craft is arguably the best defensive point guard in the nation and Deshaun Thomas is highly underrated. The front line of Sullinger, William Buford, and Thomas is one of the best in the nation.
The only problem I see lying with Ohio State is how heavily they rely on Sullinger. We saw them essentially fall on their face against Kansas and struggle with South Carolina as Sullinger was not at 100%. If they do lose Sullinger or a team figures out how to contain Sullinger, this team will struggle. However, I say this like it’s an easy task when it isn’t. Realistically, I haven’t seen a better team play all season.
2. Wisconsin
The drop-off from Ohio State to Wisconsin is more significant, in my opinion, than the rankings indicate. Realistically, Ohio State is the only national title contender in the Big Ten right now. But that’s not to take anything away from Wisconsin, who has a solid team. Their only losses on the year came at UNC by three points and a bit of a let-down game at home against Marquette, both very respectable losses.
Everyone knows Jordan Taylor, but in reality, this is a pretty balanced team. Taylor leads the team with 12.6 points, but Jared Berggren is right behind him at 12.1 points, Ryan Evans with 10.8, and Ben Brust at 10.6. The team is very, very balanced and, as you can see, isn’t entirely reliant on Taylor.
However, all that being said, Taylor’s supporting cast isn’t nearly as good as Sullinger’s is at OSU. Berggren, Evans, and Brust are solid players, but they aren’t the type of players that can take over games and likely will never single-handedly win you games. They fit well within Bo Ryan’s system. Defense is what sets this team apart, like most Bo Ryan teams. Only two teams have scored more than 60 points against them (which, coincidentally, where the two games they lost) and nine times they’ve held their opponents under 45 points. If you take a moment and analyze that, it’s an incredibly impressive performance.
3. Michigan State
The best thing that happened to this Michigan State team was the fact that they lost and struggled as much as they did early on. Their first two games, and only two losses, were to UNC and Duke. Those two losses not only gave the Spartans a bit of a dose of humility, but it also took all the pressure off them. Izzo was moving players around and experimenting with line-ups, most notably Brandon Woods at PG, and there was a lot of pressure early on. In those first two games, Woods was a combined 9 for 21 and 2 of 7 from three with just three total assists. Since then, he’s grown and shown what Izzo saw to put him as a starter. Against our Hoosiers last night, Wood set the tone early and led the Sparties all night.
And no one is talking about Draymond Green, who is one of the top five players in the Big Ten. He leads the Big Ten in double-doubles this year and is flying under the radar like his team.
Personally, I really like this team. Woods looks like a completely different player than the one that took the floor against Duke in Madison Square Garden. Green can be their go-to guy down low and is the leader of this team. The key to them, though, is the oft-talked about big man Derrick Nix. Nix’s wait loss has been highly publicized and with that, he’s become a new player. He still has the size to bang down low and provide them some quality minutes. Mark my words, this team, come season’s end, will be one of the top 10 team’s in the nation and could become a possible national title contender.
4. Indiana
To most Hoosier faithful, the outcome of tonight’s game did not come as a surprise. The way it happened may have surprised some, but I, for one, saw this coming. The problems of this team have been masked, for better or for worse, by the opponents we played. Facing the UMBCs and the Howards makes you look good. UK might be the best game we play all season, but the fact it was a home game aided us.
For one, and probably the biggest issue in my opinion, is the fact that our offense looks incredibly stagnant more often than not. Crean supposedly runs a motion offense, but come crunch time or big moments, the only motion is the ball moving from person to person around the perimeter. It’s been our offense all year, but we’ve simply been better than most the teams we play. We seem to have no idea how to make a post entry pass despite the fact we’re 13 games into a season with one of the best big man in the Big Ten on our team. This is something that is a serious problem by this point.
For the first time last night, Cody looked mortal. Can’t say we didn’t expect it some time this season, and last night made sense. Your first Big Ten road game came against a ranked Michigan State team in a hostile environment and against one of the better low post guys in the league in Draymond Green. The only think I took from this is that Cody is a freshman. Wednesday was a big step in the maturation of Cody.
However, the most encouraging thing about IU’s recent games has easily been Christian Watford. He’s the key to this IU team. Three of the last five games, he’s scored at least 20 points. In the last two games, he’s averaged 24 points and 10 rebounds. He seems to have found his groove and is playing his best ball at IU. If he and Zeller can play at a high level together, this team because that much better.
5. Michigan
Personally, I’m still not entirely sold on this Wolverines team. Their biggest win was against supremely overrated Memphis squad and a loss on a neutral court against Duke, who has improved, but isn’t as good as their rating suggests. The more telling points are that they beat Western Illinois by just 4, lost to Virginia by 12, beat Oakland by just 10, and beat Bradley by just 11. This is the makings of a team that is above average, but not one of the 25 best in the league.
As Tim Hardaway Jr goes, so does this team. It really isn’t anything no one knows or surprises us, but it’s the truth. In all but two games, he’s scored double digits. As of right now, he’s likely a first-team All-Big Ten based on non-conference play. However, I don’t expect the same success in the Big Ten where teams know everything about you.
Which is why I don’t think this team is very good. The cast around Hardaway isn’t anything to fear. For Big Ten teams that aren’t totally overwhelmed by the 1-3-1 zone, they’ll be picked apart.
The one thing that Michigan has going for them, at least early on, is an easy schedule. The Wolverines don’t have a hard stretch until late January when they travel to Ohio State, host Indiana, then travel to Michigan State. Outside of that, this team doesn’t have any hard parts in their schedule. They’ll likely ride that to a high finish in the Big Ten and a high ranking in the NCAA tourney, but that’s a long way away.
6. Illinois
7. Purdue
I put these two together because they both have similar teams. Neither have played particularly hard schedules and the only losses have come to the ranked teams they’ve played. Illinois does have a win over Gonzaga, but it was a Gonzaga team that was ranked off reputation early in the season rather than based on talent.
For Illinois, Kenpom.com ranks them as having the 221st hardest schedule, or basically not a hard schedule. Things will get harder very quickly as they enter Big Ten play. They struggled mightily against Minnesota and things don’t get any easier. This team is about to fall hard on their face.
The reason I put Purdue lower, though, is I’m not sold on their team. They have the 212th hardest schedule, but have a star that Illinois doesn’t. Without Robbie Hummel, this team would be awful. Straight awful. It’s a credit to how good Hummel is and how far he’s come back after two ACL injuries.
All that being said, the drop-off from Michigan to Illinois/Purdue is very steep.
8. Minnesota
Few teams, if any, took a bigger hit early on in this season than Minnesota did when they lost Trevor Mbakwe seven games in. Despite that, Tubby Smith has these boys motivated and playing great. The only two losses was to Dayton in the game they lost Mbakwe and to Illinois in the Big Ten opener. Similar to Illinois and Purdue, the Gophers have played just the 209th hardest schedule. They haven’t faced a single ranked team and are certainly a benefit of the schedule. Considering three of their next four games come against teams I ranked higher than them, we’ll find out a lot about this Minnesota team in the near future.
9. Northwestern
This is your typical Northwestern team: beating the teams they should and losing to the teams they should. Their inability to make it to the NCAA tournament is often talked about and nothing really shows me this team will change that trend this year. Kenpom has them ranked as the 69th best team, which would leave them out of the tourney as of now. And considering the competition level they’ve faced (192nd SOS), they’ll likely struggle in the Big Ten.
10. Iowa
11. Nebraska
12. Penn State
Again, I clump these teams together because they are incredibly similar. Their records, respectively, are 8-6, 8-4, and 8-5. Kenpom ranks them 122nd, 126th, and 143rd, respectively. They are about as similar as can be. They are suck about the same.
The Nebraska merger into the Big Ten was entirely football related and it shows as they are and likely always will be the bottom-feeder of the conference in basketball. Considering six of their first eight matches come against ranked teams, they’re going to get a very rude awakening in the Big Ten.
Waiting for them at the bottom, though, is Iowa and Penn State. The perennial bottom-feeders of the Big Ten will happily welcome another loser. Nothing tells me these teams will improve this year and the three of them are pretty interchangeable in the bottom. If anyone of these teams win more than about four or five matches in conference play, it’ll be a successful year.