Time for another CrimsonCast Live, as we get set for the big game against Michigan State (and the equally big game this Sunday versus Purdue). Derek Schultz from 1260 WNDE joins the program, as do a couple of Michigan State callers. We talk about the tournament implications of these games, the surprising trends that the Spartans have experienced at Assembly Hall, and the nature of the program that Tom Izzo has built at Michigan State. We also talk about the importance of Christian Watford and Jordan Hulls in this game, as well as the consistency of Cody Zeller. All that and more, on this edition of CrimsonCast Live.
Archive for February, 2012
Pre-Game Meal: THE Michigan State Spartans
Opponent: #5 Michigan State Spartans(24-5, 13-3)
Series History: IU leads 65-48
Last Meeting: December 28, 2011. The Spartans handed Indiana its first loss in the first B1G Ten game of the season. The game featured an early slow start by the Hoosiers which gave MSU a 34-16 lead 15 minutes into the game. The Hoosiers rallied though and staged their own 25-2 run which stretched into the 2nd half and gave IU a 5 point lead with 15 minutes to go in the game. Sparty(as he often seems to) had the last laugh in East Lansing though as Michigan State stormed back to win by 15.
Last IU win: While Tom Crean has scratched the bagel off his win column against a few schools this year, there are still two holdouts among whom Crean has not recorded a single win as IU coach. IU last defeated Michigan 80-61 in Bloomington on February 16,2008.
Back Home Again: Having taken the road monkey of its collective back for the moment, the Hoosiers come back home to face a hot Michigan State team. The Spartans have won 7 consecutive games after losing 42-41 in Illinois’ annual tribute to 1911 basketball. The good news for IU is that two players whom the Hoosiers needed to get going finally found their scoring games on Sunday. Jordan Hulls and Christian Watford scored 12 points a piece. Both players hit a three pointer for the first time in conference play since a February 9th victory over Illinois. They combined to go 9-9 from the Free throw line. Watford’s 7-7 was an especially impressive contribution. They also contributed in other ways with Watford grabbing 6 rebounds and Hulls dishing out 3 assists against 0 turnovers. While it’s too much to put the fate of the Hoosiers on anyone or two players, it was clear that these two needed to improve and they did for one afternoon.
Stat to think about to focus your zen: 42.8 The Hoosier’s free throw rate ranks 1st in the B1G Ten. The free throw is probably the best predictor of success for IU. Not only because they are particularly proficient at making the free throws, but also because the amount of free throws attempted are directly related to how aggressive IU plays offensively. In IU’s 7 B1G Ten losses, they average 15.29 free throws per game. In their 9 conference wins, the Hoosiers reached the line an average of 27.44 times. In the first meeting with Sparty this season, IU went to the line just 9 times which is a low water mark for the season.
Sc0uting Future Opponents:
Indiana A & T attempts to regain some pride and avenge an early season loss against Penn State at home. 6:30 Wednesday
B1G Ten Tournament: TBD is still TBD
NCAA Tournament: TBD is still TBD
Prediction: Some idiot is going to wear White instead of Red or Red instead of White and ruin the entire Stripe Out. While Vegas casinos are built on the following logic. Michigan State has won 7 straight, and been pretty damn impressive in almost each of the wins including a 10 point victory @THE OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY and a 14 point win @ Purdue. The Hoosiers however have more to gain from a win. IU has done well feeding off an emotionally jacked crowd, and IU is due for another night at Assembly Hall where it all comes together. The Hoosiers win 74-69.
Monday Bracket Report – Feb 27 2012
There was a lot of chaos in college basketball this past week, with teams putting themselves in good position (Kansas, Miami, South Florida, Washington, Iowa State, Purdue), falling off the table (California, Middle Tennessee State, Connecticut, George Mason), and in some rare cases, doing both in an eight-day period (Iowa, Illinois). Let’s take a look at the most recent bracket projection:
Scrambling the Top: As has been the case for the last month, Kentucky seems locked in the South and Syracuse in the East — although Kyle brings up an interesting point in that Kentucky is actually closer to St. Louis than Atlanta, so we might see the NCAA put Kentucky there. Either way, those two teams are set. But the next six spots are a huge jumbled mess right now, and it’s hard to say who emerges in what order at this stage. This week, as it was last week, the last two #1 seeds go to Michigan State and Duke, who both have sizable resume advantages. To my mind, Kansas is next in line, so they get the “5th 1 seed” status in the West, opposite Duke. Missouri ranks next, then UNC. Why are the Tar Heels so low? A lack of Top 50 wins — among the fewest in the RPI top 20. Ohio State rounds up the pack in 8th…but Ohio State could still get a 1 seed if they beat Michigan State on the road and then follow that up by getting to the Big Ten title game.
That’s Logistics: Miami snuck back into the bracket with their win versus Florida State, which necessitated a huge shift in a bunch of teams’ bracket placement. Northwestern was a true 11 seed but had to be moved down two seed lines to avoid a Big Ten opponent and ended up in the play-in game — and while that violates some bracketing rules, it does so in order to NOT violate other bracketing rules; namely that the “First Four” games have to be split between Thursday and Friday sites, if not all in Friday sites (for travel purposes). But the big problem here is that the least desirable geographical pods (Portland and Albuquerque) are going to be given to the 4/5 seed pods…which is exactly where the 12 and 13 seed play-in games will end up. So what we may be looking at is the committee artificially moving play-in games up to the 11 seed line…which, frankly, defeats the purpose of having the play-in games in the first place.
Mountain Destitute: It was a rough week for The Mountain in terms of seeding. Going in to last week, the conference had a great chance of landing two protected seeds (UNLV and New Mexico). Now, they might get zero. UNLV still has a chance, but New Mexico probably topped themselves out at a 6 seed with their road losses this past week.
That’s One Solution: One of the nice things about this time of year is the conference tournaments yield upsets, which take away bubble spots, which keeps us from wasting valuable time arguing with ourselves whether Washington deserves that last bid over Colorado State. As of now, I am hoping for three major upsets which turn one-bid leagues into multi-bid leagues — that would clear quite a bit of the chaff off the bottom of the bubble. The conferences with the best chances for this to happen are the Ohio Valley Conference (Murray State looks ready for another loss), the West Coast Conference (can Loyola Marymount or USF string a few victories together?), the Atlantic 10 (which is a mess, but still), and Conference USA.
This Week: The teams with the best chance of improving their seeding are probably Iowa State (at Missouri, vs Baylor), Ohio State (at Northwestern, at Michigan State), Indiana (Michigan State, Purdue), Illinois (Michigan, at Wisconsin), and South Florida (at Louisville, West Virginia).
Last Four In: Miami, Xavier, Texas, Washington
Last Four Out: Colorado State, Arizona, UCF, South Florida
BracketPod 02.26.12
On the latest edition of the Bracketology Show, Galen and the Committee break down the tidal wave of poor road losses from the past week, while previewing the upcoming conference tournaments. Our first guest, Troy Machir from NBC Sports’ CollegeBasketballTalk, speaks with us about the teams flying under the radar, the players that could emerge to an unknowing country in March Madness, and the conference tournament he’d most be interested in attending.
We’re then joined by John Gasaway of Basketball Prospectus and ESPN Insider. John talks with us about the NCAA’s media selection committee process and what he learned from that. We then start talking about some of the notable teams on the national scene, including New Mexico’s poor last week and Kentucky’s level of excellence. We wrap up by talking some Big Ten, including whether Illinois is still in the picture for an at-large bid.
Following that, we talk about some of the big conferences and where they’re at right now, before previewing this week’s conference tournament play. We also give you an expanded version of “Games You Must Watch”. All that and more, on this week’s episode of the Bracketology Show!
Pre-Game Meal: Minnesota
Opponent: Minnesota Golden Gophers (17-11, 5-10) 
Last Meeting: January 12, 2012. Perhaps the first sign of trouble after a 15-1 start. The Gophers beat a listless Hoosier squad 77-74 in Assembly Hall. The loss kicked off a 3 game losing streak.
Last Indiana Win: February 2, 2011 -Verdell Jones III and Tom Pritchard each contributed 12 points as IU dominated early and held an 11 point lead with 5 1/2 minutes leftt. Despite this, the Hoosiers had to hang on by their collective fingernails. The highlight of the game was the original Pritch Slap.
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Road Game Blues: I’d argue that IU’s road troubles are slightly overstated. If IU wins in Minnesota, it will move into a fifth place tie for B1G Ten road wins. And when factoring in the two non-conference road wins, only two B1G Ten teams have more. While losing at Iowa and losing at Nebraska are nothing to be proud of, winning on the road is not a problem unique to Indiana. With that said, IU certainly hasn’t overperformed when away from Indiana. And even among a number of difficult road venues, The Barn in Minneapolis is among the toughest. Since 1990, IU is 5-13 against the Gophers in Minneapolis while the Hoosiers are 14-5 during the same stretch at home. Given this home/road split, there’s plenty of reason for concern about a game against a desperate opponent who has already beaten the Hoosiers in the more favorable venue.
Statistic to consider to take your mind away from wondering who in the hell thought those raised floors were a good idea; 2.7 Rebounds per Game I was surprised to find that IU has outrebounded its B1G Ten opponents by 2.7 rebounds per game. IU has only won one game when being outrebounded, and though the Hoosiers grabbed more boards than Minnesota in the 1st matchup, the Gophers 12 2nd half offensive rebounds were key in holding off Indiana’s failed comeback attempt.
Scouting Future Opponents
Michigan State hosts the Huskers at 8:00 Saturday evening.
Indiana A&T travels to Crisler Aretna and takes on Michigan at 6:00 on Saturday.
1st Round B1G Ten tournament TBD is still TBD.
Prediction: Jim Harbaugh will not quit his NFL head coaching job and re-start his career as chief chair getter and Gatorade slinger with the Hoosiers. While there are a number of reasons for unease, there are a number of matchups which work to the Hoosiers advantage and on a neutral court I’d peg IU for a 10 point victory. Taking the Williams Arena super home court advantage and IU’s road malaise into account, I still give IU a 3 point win. Hoosiers win 73-70.
Hoosier Hotline – 2/23/2012
Tony Adragna and Jimmy Cavanaugh are back to talk IU hoops. They dive into the North Carolina Central contest, talk about what went wrong at Iowa, and much more.
Also, Jerod Morris of AssemblyCall joins the duo, and takes the 90′s trivia quiz. Thanks to AskTheWho of BtownBanners for the call as well.
CrimsonCast Live 02.21.12
On this edition of CrimsonCast LIVE, Galen and Matt are joined by Kevin Bowen of the IDS, who shares his perspective on the recent loss to Iowa, the struggles that the team’s upperclassmen are having, and what the team needs to do in order to be successful at Minnesota this weekend. Also joining the show are several callers, with topics ranging from the types of questions that Tom Crean gets in press conferences to the issues of Hulls and Watford moving forward this season. Thanks for listening!
Monday Bracket Report – 02.20.12
BracketBusters has come and gone, and we’re now officially rounding the final turn into the last three weeks of the college basketball season. Selection Sunday is in 20 days! Hard to believe.
Here’s this week’s bracket:
Madness?: No, this is the Spartans. Back from an 0-2 start, Michigan State has finally moved into the fourth #1 seed position. Their resume looks better every week, they have the inside track to win the toughest conference in the country, and they get their primary competition for that title (Ohio State) at home down the stretch. It also helps that Ohio State is MSU’s primary competition for a #1 seed. Duke has also swung back into a #1 seed — as David said on the BracketPod, they have beaten Michigan State, Michigan, Kansas, and North Carolina AWAY from home this year. Who else can say that?
So what about Missouri?: Currently, the Tigers sit in fifth place on the S-curve. They’ve got a LOT of national momentum, but their resume just doesn’t stack up to Michigan State or Ohio State, and I’m curious to see how they handle Kansas on the road.
Oh wow, it’s you again: I’ve been railing against the Pac 12 all season. And it’s still not a good conference, believe me. But I’m having trouble with the bottom of the at-large field now, because as unimpressive as some of these Pac 12 resumes are, they’re starting to look more consistent than their competition. Washington made it into the bracket this week, and Oregon barely got left out. Arizona is slowly assembling a bottom-of-the-field type of resume. And California continues to win games. I used to think the Pac 12 was destined to one shameful bid. Now they could get two or three, which would be a real shame.
The first law of bracketology: There’s a lot of doomsayers in the bracket world, and many like to talk about games being “must-win” or losses being “crippling” to seeding or bid chances. But remember the first law of bracketology — Thou Shalt Not Overreact To Any One Game. We’ve seen Northwestern given the last rites about six different times this year, yet they are still solidly in my field. Indiana got blown out at Iowa, and it was a very disappointing loss for the Hoosiers, but it was only one game, on the road, against a team that is sniffing around the Top 100. Miami followed up their win at Duke with close losses at Florida State and at home to UNC, and people started tweeting about their demise (nonsense!). As bad as losses may look, they’re often times not.
Rising: The teams who helped themselves out the most this week were New Mexico, Wichita State, and Michigan. The Lobos have gone from questionable 10/11 seed range to 6-7 seed range, and still have room to climb. Wichita State’s dismantling of Davidson should put them solidly on the 4 line. Meanwhile, Michigan’s hot streak has pushed them up into 3 seed range.
Falling: Baylor is dropping like a rock, mostly due to their resume being devoid of any wins over potential seeds better than 7. Mississippi State and Alabama are really struggling right now, and don’t have a great deal on their resume to back themselves up. The trios of teams from the Big Ten (Illinois, Northwestern, Minnesota) and Big East (Seton Hall, Cincinnati, Connecticut) continue to do significant damage to themselves, and the Gophers actually dropped out of the bracket this week.
Last Four In: Xavier, Seton Hall, Washington, St. Joseph’s
Last Four Out: UCF, Oregon, Colorado State, Minnesota
BracketPod 02.19.12
The Bracketology Show is back, and what a show it was! We were joined by two awesome guests – Mike Miller of NBC Sports, who talked with us about winners and losers from the Bracket Busters, the current #1 seed situation, and the most entertaining conference tournaments coming up this March. We were also joined by statistical guru Ken Pomeroy, who gave us his unique and interesting takes on a variety of topics, including New Mexico’s standing in his ratings system, the current state of quantitative college basketball statistics, and the team he things is flying the most under the radar for the tournament (note: this one may very well surprise you).
We also take in the full smorgasboard of college basketball, talking everything from South Florida’s at-large chances to Drexel and Long Beach State’s standing in the S-curve hierarchy. That and much much more, only on the Bracketology Show!
SpreeCast – at Iowa postgame
Join us for our post-game spreecast after the Iowa game! Starts at 8 pm.
