Meant to post this last night but I wanted a few more hours to ponder it:
- Kentucky was moved out of the bracket in favor of Middle Tennessee State. This has to be a tough one for the committee — on the one hand, you’ve got a name team in Kentucky with a resume similar to two other teams on the bubble, but on the other hand you’ve got an MTSU team that won 28 games and has a good RPI, two factors that have always combined to result in at-large berths in the past. Both MTSU and St. Mary’s are in similar boats, but I think MTSU is in better shape due to their outright conference title and large win total. Yes, these items are not traditional resume factors. But go back and look at teams in similar situations (Utah State from a few years ago comes to mind) and you’ll see that the committee loves rewarding outright titles and huge win totals.
- I tried shaking up the regional arrangement by putting IU in Lexington this time around. I still think the Hoosiers end up in Dayton, but I wanted to see what would shake out if they didn’t.