Here’s the updated bracket through last night’s games. After this one we’ve only got two more brackets to do. This is always the most bittersweet of times.
Last Four In: Providence, Kansas State, Rhode Island, USC
First Four Out: Syracuse, Illinois State, Illinois, Georgia
Notes: Lots of little moves, a few big ones, and some potentially interesting matchups starting to materialize.
- The 1 seed line is suddenly muddled. Did UNC’s loss put their 1 seed in jeopardy? Could Arizona vault Gonzaga if they beat Oregon tonight (or, could Oregon do the same?). Could Duke actually make the 1 seed line?
- Regarding Arizona/Oregon, I think it’s possible they could grab that 1 seed in the West. Gonzaga’s profile just doesn’t have a huge amount of depth — of their six top 50 wins, three are against a St. Mary’s team that gamed the RPI this year.
- As far as Duke is concerned, don’t sleep on the idea that the committee will give them a pass on whatever losses they suffered during K’s absence. I still don’t think they’ll make it up to the 1 line, but I’ve got them as my last 2 now, largely due to the above scenario.
- At this point I think Providence and Kansas State are securely in. Rhode Island is certainly not a sure thing, and I really don’t like USC at all. I’ve read some metrics that make me think USC is going to get in, but their presence in the field has me hoping for a bid-stealer to come in and take an at-large spot away.