Like the kids crying at the end of the LLWS, nothing is better than watching sad Kentucky fans

NCAA Tournament Round 4

Opponent: Kentucky Wildcats (34-2, #1 in Nation)

Series History: Kentucky leads Indiana 31-23

NCAA Series History: Kentucky leads 3-0

Last Game: I probably don’t need to mention that the last game was also the last IU win,  a thrilling 73-72 victory clinched by Christian Watford hitting a three pointer as time expired.

Dispelling myths about the last game:  I think this has been touched on already this week, but Jacob really made some good points in his running diary of rewatching the came.  The convenient storyline is that IU played out of its mind and Kentucky played poorly which along with some help from the Assembly Hall crowd and the zebras, allowed IU to get a fluky win, which won’t  happen again this season.   The only problem with that story is that it’s almost 100% false. The only small bit of truth is that if the Hoosiers win this game, its unlikely to follow the same pattern as the December version. If IU gets off to as cold of a start, or plays the last 10 minutes so tentatively, or turn the ball over 18 times, it will not win tonight.  But this plays to the point that while in the the end IU played well, it was by no means flawless.  And while Kentucky was less efficient than many games, it wasn’t as though the Wildcats had a glaring number of turnovers or they shot the ball much worse than the rest of the season.

So that means we shouldn’t even call it an upset this time around right?  Well not exactly, the Wildcats didn’t go 34-2 for nothing.   After losing the number one ranking in December, the Wildcats never fell below #3 in the AP poll. They reclaimed the #1 ranking the week of January 23rd and haven’t given it up since.  Kentucky steamrolled through an admittedly tepid SEC schedule going 16-0 in the conference regular season and outscoring foes by an average of 17.5 points per game.  Kentucky is led by three freshmen and two sophomores all of whom could legitimately be playing the NBA next season. Freshman Center Anthony Davis, who was the Sporting News player of the year, averages 14 points, 10 rebounds, and 4.5 blocks per game. He’s joined in the starting lineup by fellow freshmen Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and Indianapolis native Marquis Teague. Sophomores Doren Lambe and Terrence Jones round out the starting lineup.  Kentucky’s not particularly deep but seniors Darius Miller and Eloy Vargas both come off the bench to provide stability when the kiddie corps need a nap.

Well Shit. Is there anything to be excited about? While it will certainly take an excellent effort tonight, I do believe Kentucky can be beaten. I think IU probably provides as much of a matchup problem as any team in college with two athletic big men who can score away from the basket. Zeller in particular has left a number of big men this season gasping for air from trying to keep up with him. If Cody is able to get out in transition a few times early in the game, it’s likely we could see Davis frustrated again.  For the matchups to be exploited to their utmost, IU will need the good Christian Watford to show up, and for the outside shooters to take advantage.  In the first matchup IU hit 60% of its 3 point attempts,  the fourth best percentage on the season. In order to win IU will need to shoot at at least 50% from behind the arc, a  feat the Hoosiers have accomplished 14 times to date.

One factor which I believe has been overlooked is we haven’t seen one of Kentucky’s best efforts in almost a month.  has played its best basketball in the last few weeks. After pistol whipping the rest of the SEC by an average of 14 points per game, Kentucky played pretty uninspired ball in beating LSU by 9 and Florida by 3 in the SEC tournament before losing to Vandy in the finals.  They certainly were never challenged but beat Western Kentucky by 15 and were pretty lethargic save for a very impressive 3 minute span in a 16 point win over Iowa State.  Now I don’t mean to make too much of this as you’re splitting hairs when you try to differentiate between 34 wins,  and it’s not as though IU  was a shining beacon of quality play in its win Saturday against VCU, but I am less scared that Kentucky blows the doors down from the opening whistle than I might have been in February.

Scouting Future Opponents: The first matchup of the evening features Baylor and Xavier.  I hate playing the second game because I want the easiest opponent in case Indiana wins and the toughest opponent if Kentucky wins. If nothing else there should be a nice buzz in the crowd from the highlighter fumes emitted from Baylor’s uniforms.

Prediction: Not that I’m superstitious or anything but I’m repeating my prediction from the first game. Kentucky wins, and I’m afraid Kentucky turns a close game at halftime into a double digit win before heading through the Xavier Musketeers on its way to another Final Four.

Opponent: New Mexico State Aggies (26-9,10-4 in WAC)

Series History: IU and NMSU have only met once.  The Hoosiers won what I can only assume was a closer than expected affair 74-68.  The Aggies have been waiting 51 years to exact revenge since that lone appearance in 1961.

A little bit of knowledge about these gentlemen: The Aggies have run seven players in the main rotation since sophomore guard Christian Kabongo transferred at New Year’s. The frontcourt is anchored by 6-11 center Hamidu Rahman and fortified by 6-8 junior Bandja Sky who generally comes off the bench for his 22 minutes per game. Seniors Hernst Laroche and Wendall McKines are joined by Juniors Tyrone Watson and Daniel Mullings in what amounts to be a 4 guard offense revolving around the one post player.

So what’s so good about them: The Aggies are an exceptionally talented offensive team. NMSU’s 78.5 points per game are good enough for 11th nationally. The Aggies lead their conference in virtually every offensive category. In addition, the Aggies rank in the top 10 nationally in total rebounds per game and offensive rebound percentage.  While the defense doesn’t lock opponents down like a B1G school, because of the increased pace they are often able to force opponents into less efficient play.

So what’s the weakness: To be honest, there aren’t a lot of glaring weaknesses in NMSU. They are not particularly effective from behind the three point line, shooting only 33% for the season. NMSU of course makes up for this with its prodigious ability to rebound the ball. If the Hoosiers can keep NMSU’s offense operating outside the 3 point arc and rebound at a fair enough clip, IU shhould walk away with a victory.

One Shining Stat of Choice: Free Throw Rate : Per KenPom.com, this is defined as a team’s Free Throws Attempted/Field Goals Attempted. There aren’t a lot of teams who are more effective in squeezing out free throws than the Hoosiers. IU’s free throw rate of 46.6% ranks 7th in the country. IU scores almost a quarter of their points from the charity stripe.  New Mexico State actually is even more effective. NMSU’s free throw rate of 52.5 leads the nation. The Aggies actually get slightly more than a quarter of their offense from the free throw line averaging 25.5 percent of their offense from free throws which also leads the nation.

It will be interesting to see how the game is called. Against most B1G opponents, I felt IU was much better suited to a tightly called game. However given the experience of playing in the land that fouls forgot, I believe IU would be much better off in a loosely called game on Thursday.

 Scouting Future Opponents:

Wichita State plays Virginia Commonwealth University immediately preceding the IU-NMSU bout.

Prediction: The number of times I remind you of incorrect predictions will be zero  

There is nothing more obnoxious then someone who reminds you when he gets a prediction right.  So far be it from me to remind people that I picked IU to make the tournament.  I mean, no one really cares right? This is all just to point out that past performance does not guarantee future results.

So with all that said let’s get to the tournament preview.  While there are certainly causes for alarm in the Hoosiers opening opponent, I believe the toughness IU has developed down low and the Hoosier’s depth will lead to Indiana taking over at the end of each half while the Aggies scramble around some foul trouble. IU gets a scare but eventually wins 77-68.

You can see all my picks for the NCAA tournament here.

The Opponent: Penn State Nittany Lions(12-19, 14-14) 

Last Meeting: IU overcame a slow 1st half with a overwhelming defensive effort in the 2nd half to defeat the Nittany Lions 73-54. The game got a little bit chippy at the end when Christian Watford was fouled hard on a 3 point attempt with only 7 second left and IU up 17.

Season Series: Jordan Hulls and Matt Roth put on a shooting clinic in Happy Valley in the first meeting, going 12-15 from behind the arc as IU escaped the Bryce Jordan center with an 88-82 win. The two wins represented Tom Crean’s first B1G Ten season sweep.  Probably don’t need a whole lot of imagination to think of who the second on was.

The quest for Friday: I’m fairly certain that if Hoosier fans had been told that IU would be playing in the 5-12 matchup, a fair number of people would be wondering when Tom Crean would be getting the axe after landing in last place again.   Instead, IU has won 7 of its last 8, and 8 of its last 10. The Hoosiers are playing not just to see another day but instead to possibly improve their NCAA tournament seed.

Most projections I’ve seen have IU listed as a 4 seed. Of course  Galen’s projection has the Hoosiers as a 3 seed, so i’m not sure why you would read anyone else.

Stat to consider when you wonder why it’s Penn State and not Pennsylvania Commonwealth: .986  That is IU’s defensive points per possession in the last 8 games. Aside from one last horrific defensive performance against Iowa in Carver Hawkeye Arena, IU’s defense has been well above average. Purdue was the first team to score more than 1 point per possession in 4 games against IU. While the defense has turned up the pressure, there hasn’t been a drop off in IU’s offensive production. Over the same eight game stretch which stretches back to the first win over Purdue,  the Hoosiers are averaging 1.16 points per possession.  This is an improvement from the season long 1.11 PPP which leads the B1G Ten.

Scouting Future Opponents:  ”There’s a, um tradition in tournament play- not talk about the next step until you’ve climbed the one in front of you.”

Ah screw it. If IU defeats PCU then the Hoosiers will play 4 seed Wisconsin. Of course they’re not playing so there’s really not much scouting to be done.

Prediction: The 11 B1G Ten Tourney games will come close but won’t quite outdraw the Pacers for the rest of the season.  This is a strong test of IU’s readiness for tournament play. The Hoosiers are more talented and experienced than Penn State. They are playing better than the Nittany Lions to boot. Now IU needs to display the maturity coach Tom Crean has been bragging about. Fortunately, I believe they will. Perhaps their’s a slow start,  but IU prevails with a rather large blowout win. IU wins 83-58.

Opponent: Purdue Boilermakers (20-10, 10-7) 

Series History: Purdue leads 112-85

Last Meeting: The Hoosiers forgot all about their supposed road difficulties and whooped up on the Boilers in West Lafayette 78-61.

Last Meeting on Senior Night: February 29, 2000.  IU beat the Boilers 79-65 behind 17 points from AJ Guyton and 16 points from Kirk Haston. Oh yeah, it was notable because 5 days later the Hoosiers lost a tight game in Madison. The following Friday they lost to Illinois in the B1G Ten Tournament and a week later they lost to Pepperdine.  So of course the last time Indiana played against Purdue on senior night was Bob Knight’s last victory at Indiana.

Senior night: Admit it. You’re going to miss cursing at them aren’t you. You’re going to have an empty feeling when you’re no longer screaming at Verdell or wondering WHY DANIEL MOORE IS IN THE GAME. But IU fans should always remember this class of seniors. I wouldn’t have had anything bad to say about these players if they had decided not to join the tire fire that was the IU program in 2008. I wouldn’t have had anything bad to say had they decided the  losing was simply too much and transferred elsewhere. But instead the five seniors stayed. And for that IU fans should always remember them.

Stat to  consider while you wonder one last time why Tom Pritchard scored more points in his first year than the last three combined: 12-23, 13-16, 38 points, 18 Rebounds, 11 Assists.  That’s the stat line for Verdell Jones III since he returned from injury 5 games ago. It took 3 and 2/3 years but the Tom Crean has finally found the right spot for Jones. He’s come off the bench for the last three games, and has settled into a relatively productive role where he isn’t asked to do too much. I’ve generally stood up for Jones in his three plus years at IU,  often asserting that he was miscast as the focal point on offense but simply filled the role because no one else could. Now in addition to Cody Zeller down low, the offense has found it’s new centerpiece on the perimeter in Victor Oladipo.  Victor has scored in double figures for the last 7 games and consistently attacked the other teams defense with impunity.

Scouting Future Opponents: 

B1G Ten Tournament:  IU will either play Penn State or Nebraska in the first round. Penn State hosts Michigan on Sunday at 1. Nebraska finishes it’s inaugural B1G Ten regular season with a visit to Minneapolis.

Prediction: The Kelsey Barlow choke big head will be pretty popular in the student section tomorrow.  IU and Purdue are both winners of 5 out of 6 coming into the game and have been fairly close in the standings all season.  But quite honestly I simply don’t see any matchup Purdue can exploit and aside from flukish foul trouble for Cody Zeller and Christian Watford, I see a lot of vulnerabilities which the Hoosies can exploit. IU wins by enough to let Kory Barnett see the floor on Senior night.

Opponent: #5 Michigan State Spartans(24-5, 13-3)

Series History: IU leads 65-48

Last Meeting: December 28, 2011. The Spartans handed Indiana its first loss in the first B1G Ten game of the season. The game featured an early slow start by the Hoosiers which gave MSU a 34-16 lead 15 minutes into the game. The Hoosiers rallied though and staged their own 25-2 run which stretched into the 2nd half and gave IU a 5 point lead with  15 minutes to go in the game. Sparty(as he often seems to) had the last laugh in East Lansing though as Michigan State stormed back to win by 15.

Last IU win:  While Tom Crean has scratched the bagel off his win column against a few schools this year, there are still two holdouts among whom Crean has not recorded a single win as IU coach. IU last defeated Michigan 80-61 in Bloomington on February 16,2008.

Back Home Again: Having taken the road monkey of its collective back for the moment, the Hoosiers come back home to face a hot Michigan State team. The Spartans have won 7 consecutive games after losing 42-41 in Illinois’ annual tribute to 1911 basketball.  The good news for IU is that two players whom the Hoosiers needed to get going finally found their scoring games on Sunday. Jordan Hulls and Christian Watford scored 12 points a piece. Both players hit a three pointer for the first time in conference play since a February 9th victory over Illinois. They combined to go 9-9 from the Free throw line. Watford’s 7-7 was an especially impressive contribution. They also contributed in other ways with Watford grabbing 6 rebounds and Hulls dishing out 3 assists against 0 turnovers.  While it’s too much to put the fate of the Hoosiers on anyone or two players, it was clear that these two needed to improve and they did for one afternoon.

Stat to think about to focus your zen: 42.8  The Hoosier’s free throw rate ranks 1st in the B1G Ten. The free throw is probably the best predictor of success for IU. Not only because they are particularly proficient at making the free throws, but also because the amount of free throws attempted are directly related to how aggressive IU plays offensively.  In IU’s 7 B1G Ten losses, they average 15.29 free throws per game. In their 9 conference wins, the Hoosiers reached the line an average of 27.44 times. In the first meeting with Sparty this season,  IU went to the line  just 9 times which is a low water mark for the season.

Sc0uting Future Opponents:

Indiana A & T attempts to regain some pride and avenge an early season loss against Penn State at home. 6:30 Wednesday

B1G Ten Tournament: TBD is still TBD

NCAA Tournament: TBD is still TBD

Prediction: Some idiot is going to wear White instead of Red or Red instead of White and ruin the entire Stripe Out.  While Vegas casinos are built on the following logic. Michigan State has won 7 straight, and been pretty damn impressive in almost each of the wins including a 10 point victory @THE OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY and a 14 point win @ Purdue.  The Hoosiers however have more to gain from a win. IU has done well feeding off an emotionally jacked crowd, and IU is due for another night at Assembly Hall where  it all comes together. The Hoosiers win 74-69.

Opponent: Minnesota Golden Gophers (17-11, 5-10) 

Last Meeting: January 12, 2012. Perhaps the first sign of trouble after a 15-1 start. The Gophers beat a listless Hoosier squad 77-74 in Assembly Hall.  The loss kicked off a 3 game losing streak.

Last Indiana Win: February 2, 2011 -Verdell Jones III and Tom Pritchard each contributed 12 points as IU dominated early and held an 11 point lead with 5 1/2 minutes leftt. Despite this, the Hoosiers had to hang on by their collective fingernails. The highlight of the game was the original Pritch Slap.

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Road Game Blues: I’d argue that IU’s road troubles are slightly overstated. If IU wins in Minnesota, it will move into a fifth place tie for B1G Ten road wins. And when factoring in the two non-conference road wins, only two B1G Ten teams have more.  While losing at Iowa and losing at Nebraska are nothing to be proud of, winning on the road is not a problem unique to Indiana. With that said,  IU certainly hasn’t overperformed when away from Indiana. And even among a number of  difficult road venues, The Barn in Minneapolis is among the toughest.  Since 1990, IU is 5-13 against the Gophers in Minneapolis while the Hoosiers are 14-5 during the same stretch at home.  Given this home/road split, there’s plenty of reason for concern about  a game against a desperate opponent who has already beaten the Hoosiers in the more favorable venue.

Statistic to consider to take your mind away from wondering who in the hell thought those raised floors were a good idea;  2.7 Rebounds per Game I was surprised to find that IU has outrebounded its B1G Ten opponents by 2.7 rebounds per game.  IU has only won one game when being outrebounded, and though the Hoosiers grabbed more boards than Minnesota in the 1st matchup, the Gophers 12 2nd half offensive rebounds were key in holding off Indiana’s failed comeback attempt.

Scouting Future Opponents

Michigan State hosts the Huskers at 8:00 Saturday evening.

Indiana A&T  travels to Crisler Aretna and takes on Michigan at 6:00 on Saturday.

1st Round B1G Ten tournament TBD is still TBD.

Prediction: Jim Harbaugh will not quit his NFL head coaching job and re-start his career as chief chair getter and Gatorade slinger with the Hoosiers.   While there are a number of reasons for unease, there are a number of matchups which work to the Hoosiers advantage and on a neutral court I’d peg IU for a 10 point victory. Taking the Williams Arena super home court advantage and IU’s road malaise into account, I still give IU a 3 point win. Hoosiers win 73-70.

Opponent: Northwestern Wildcats(15-9,5-7)
Series History: IU leads 109-48
Last Meeting: The Wildcats edged IU in Bloomington 70-64 to sweep the season series for the first time in well probably ever.
Last IU Win: IU ended an 11 game losing streak to beat Northwestern 88-80 in overtime.  The win closed out the regular season. Many hoped that this would lead to some momentum in the B1G Ten tournament, but alas, IU lost to Northwestern by 15 five days later.

VJIII’s absence is the Ewing Theory on Steroids
    Assuming everyone is familiar with Bill Simmons’ Ewing theory of teams that play better without the “superstar” than they did with him. Though counter-intuitive, this actually makes sense.  When the dominant personality on a team goes down, the entire team fills the vacuum and everyone plays above his previous expectations.
    So what’s that have to do with Verdell Jones III? Well despite his numerous limitations, over the last four years it became quite clear that VJIII was probably the dominant personality on the squad. Unlike virtually every other player on the roster, Jones has never lacked the confidence or drive necessary to be a team leader.  (EVEN WHEN ALL EVIDENCE SCREAMED HE SHOULD IN FACT NOT BE SO DAMN CONFIDENT) There’s a reason he took the initial inbound pass against Kentucky and dribbled up court, where he was likely the number one scoring option had he not noticed Christian Watford. There’s a reason why when the shot clock winds down, all too often the ball ends up in his hands. I should point out that despite my frequent defense of him, I don’t think he’s best suited for this role. If IU needs someone to get to the rim, I’d much rather it be Victor Oladipo or Will Sheehey. If IU needs someone to take a tough shot, I’d much rather have just about anyone aside from Tom Pritchard.
   This is why Verdell’s “Ewing Theory” impact has been even greater than what you’d normally expect.  In general, the injured athlete is in fact the best player on the team. The reason people forecast doom is because obviously a team will miss it’s leading scorer, or top post player. In this case however, Verdell was far from the best player.  When other people had to fill the void, they were actually better than the original player.  Hopefully, the two games without him won’t be forgotten as he gets back into the rotation and Verdell can continue to evolve into a talented role player which is the role that suits him best.

Stat to distract you from those awful Jared jewlery commercials: Since Bruce Weber whined about the discrepancy in foul shots last week, I thought I’d look at how meaningful the discrepancy was. Taking just the conference games, IU leads the B1G Ten in Free Throws Made(216) Attempted(285) and Percentage(75.8%.) The Hoosiers are averaging 21.9 FTA/Game so far while IU opponents are averaging 19.8 FTA/game. So Bruce can quit whining. But the dramatic difference is comparing this year to last year. Last year, IU went to the free throw line 300 times in 18 games for an average of about 16.7 attempts per game but opponents went to the line an astounding 472 times, and average of 26.3 times per game.

Scouting Future Opponents:
1. Iowa travels to Penn State on Thursday
2. North Carolina Central faces North Carolina A&T  on Saturday
3. Minnesota faces THE Ohio State University on Tuesday

Prediction: The Bowling Ball with the Homer inscription will not pass muster as a Valentine’s Day gift, despite the obviously hysterical reference.
Northwestern strikes me as a less physical but more skilled Purdue team. IU will need to impose its’ physical strength much like it did against the Boilermakers. I think Northwestern makes IU sweat this out, but the Hoosiers pull away late in 2nd half and win 76-65.

Opponent: Illinois Fighting Illini (16-7, 5-5)

Series Record: Tied 83-83

Last Meeting:3/5/11  The Illini thumped Indiana 72-48(and it wasn’t really that close,) to close out the regular season.

Last IU win: 1/27/11 A thrilling 52-49 victory which led to Hoosier students storming the court in celebration of IU’s first win over a ranked opponent in the Tom Crean era. Little did the students know there were going to be better reasons to storm the court in the next season.

A different team from last year:  If IU thinks it will be able to just breeze through a 52-49 walk in the park like last year, it has another thing coming.  This is a completely different Illinois team. The trio of Mike Davis, Mike Tisdale, and Demetri McCamey are gone. Their production has been mostly replaced by a new trio who is sure to be as big of a pain in the ass;  DJ Richardson, Brandon Paul,  and Meyers Leonard.  All three were with the team last year, but have taken on much larger roles this season.  Of the three, the 7’2″ Leonard’s ascent has been the most noticeable. He’s gone from averaging 2.1 points and 1.2 rebounds per game to 13.3 and 8.  To put that in perspective, it’s almost as good as replacing Bobby Capobianco’s production with Cody Zeller’s. Wouldn’t that be something if a team could manage that.

Stat to win friends and influence people:  The absolute takeaway from the Hoosiers win over Purdue was the defensive effort and execution fans have been clamoring for. IU held Purdue to .91 points per possession, almost .2 below their average. As a comparison, it was essentially like taking what IU has done on average all season and making it look like the Hoosiers did against Wisconsin.  What made it more impressive in my mind was that the Hoosiers forced only 3 turnovers. IU simply limited the good shots for most of the game, and when Purdue missed, IU didn’t allow many offensive rebounds.  If IU can play defense like that for the rest of the season, there are few teams who can match up to the Hoosiers firepower on offense.

Gratuitous Bruce Weber Cheap Shot: Unfortunately for Mr. Weber, his record is trending downward at the worst possible time. Weber is now in his 9th season as head coach of the Illini, he took over a loaded team from Bill Self and to his credit brought them to the doorstep of a National Championship in his 2nd year.  You might remember Sean May and the Tarheels beating Illinois in this game, if you do, you’re a better  fan than me. Since then his record has been mixed to say the least. He’s missed the tournament twice and last year’s run to the Sweet Sixteen with a senior laden squad was the only time he’s seen the 2nd weekend of the NCAA’s in the last 7 years.  And as the seat is getting warmer, he also has to deal with a new Athletic Director. Mike Thomas, came over from the University of Cincinnati and immediately began cleaning house by replacing the enigma known as Ron Zook.  Which leads me to….

Gratuitous Jack Trudeau cheap shot: You might remember the gratuitous cheap shots became an official headingafter Trudeau promised to “have his old buddy Zooker” run the score up on Kevin Wilson and the Hoosiers.  Well he might have accomplished that, but apparantly Wilson gets the last laugh as both Trudeau and Zooker were let go within weeks of each other. Far be it from me to do something as classless as kicking a man when he’s lost his job. But that’s why I trust in my readers to do it for me.

Scouting Future Opponents:

Northwestern Hosts Iowa Thursday at 9.

North Carolina Central hosts Savannah State on Saturday.  

Prediction: Much to my dismay, they won’t make Leonard Part 7.

   Though Meyers Leonard will pose an interesting and new challenge to IU’s talented freshman forward, the surrounding talent won’t be enough as Victor Oladipo continues his defensive renaissance in locking down Brandon Paul. IU wins 78-65.

Opponent: Purdue Boilermakers (15-7, 5-4)

Last Meeting: JaJuan Johnson took advantage of Indiana’s non-existent interior game and led all scorers with 20 points. The Boilers led by 10 at halftime and cruised to a 72-61 victory.

Last IU win: Way back in the Kelvin Sampson era. Eric Gordon scored 22 points while DJ White scored 19 with 14 rebounds in a 77-68 Hoosier victory. Of course that wasn’t the story. IU last beat Purdue on February 19,2009.  Kelvin Sampson was relieved of his duties as head coach on February 22.

Everyone still itching to play this one? In the midst of IU’s brilliant 15-1 start, there is no team Indiana fans looked forward to playing than the Purdue Boilermakers.  And with good reason.  While Indiana struggled to keep the program above water in Tom Crean’s first three  years,  the Boilers were enjoying a sustained run of quality play, led by the recently graduated E’Twaun Moore and JaJuan Johnson. So during IU’s impressive streak, IU fans knew that vindication was on the horizon with what were sure to be two quality beat downs of the rivals. Then came the loss at home to Minnesota. And the one on the road to Nebraska. And the 5 losses in 7 games.  Now IU fans are fearing yet another road loss and another February  collapse by the Hoosiers.

Three reasons to panic: 1) The Hoosier defense is truly horrific.  Whatever metric you want to use, Points per Game, Points per Possession , Total points, the IU defense is awful. Only once in B1G Ten play has IU held an opponent to less than a point per possession.  Even with IU’s sometimes prolific offense, that’s a lot of pressure to keep up.

2) The rebounding on both offense and defense can be non-existent. This is actually very related to the first problem. Because IU has such awful transition defense, the Hoosiers can’t risk sending extra bodies after offensive rebounds, and on defense the Hoosiers are repeatedly caught out of position to not only defend a first chance but also to prevent a second chance.

3) Recent history doesn’t bode well.  With the loss on Wednesday to Michigan, Tom Crean’s record in February and March fell to 3 and 30.  More than the mind numbingly painful 2-30 conference road record,  the record at the end of the season shows how IU’s lack of depth has come back to haunt the Hoosiers. After the loss, Crean said he was  looking for “Warriors” in February. Perhaps he should just be looking for fresh bodies.

Three reasons for optimism: 1) The schedule gets to be slightly more favorable. While Tom Crean’s road history gives one pause, it should be noted that IU has gotten the hardest road games out of its system. And while there are obvious concerns about a 5-6 record, 6 of the 11 games were against what has become a clear top 4 in the conference including 4 on the road The B1G Ten schedule makers made up for IU only playing Wisconsin in Madison by keeping the Hoosiers only game against Illinois inside the comfy confines of the real Assembly Hall. Of the top four teams in the B1G Ten, IU plays only one, Michigan State, and that will be at home.

2) Contributions have come from a variety of sources. On the one hand it would be nice if IU could get consistent production from its stars. On the other hand, it’s been nice to know that Tom Crean can go to his bench and get productive minutes from four or five different sources.  Remy Abell, Matt Roth, Tom Pritchard, and whichever of the Victor Oladipo/Will Sheehey duo is not starting have all come off the bench and given the Hoosiers something at different points. But the biggest contribution has come from Derek Elston who scored 20 points in his last two games.  Of course Elston has teased IU fans in the past with spurts of 3-4 good games, but hopefully this time it sticks.

3) If this is the worst run of play, IU will be fine. Every team plays above its talent level for a few weeks and will play substandard basketball for a few weeks, but if the last three weeks end up being the worst stretch IU sees all season then there’s no doubt the Hoosiers will have met or exceeded nearly everyone’s expectations.

Scouting Future Opponents:

Illinois hosts Northwestern on Saturday. Bruce Weber once again lobbies unsuccessfully for the back cut to be ruled unconstitutional.

Iowa hosts Penn State and tries to prove that there is  in fact a worst defensive team than Indiana.

Prediction: Making fun of Purdue’s Yellow P will never get old.  Despite the wailing and gnashing of teeth, I’m actually not so concerned about this one.  Purdue’s greatest offensive virtue is its ability to avoid turnovers, but I think IU makes just enough shots to walk off the big combover with a 78-71 victory.

Opponent: Nebraska Cornhuskers (9-8, 1-5 in B1G Ten) 

Series History:  IU leads 8-1. Not a lot to be pulled from this. The Hoosiers and Huskers have played only twice since the end of WWII.

Last Meeting: December 30,  1982. IU won 67-50.

So what to learn of the 12 member of the B1G Ten: Nebraska has been pretty much as advertised in its initial season with the conference. In the last 5 seasons in the Big 12, Nebraska finished anywhere from 7th to 12th. The Huskers are led by senior guard Bo Spencer’s 14.8 points per Game. 5’11″  Freshman guard Toney McCray broke into the starting lineup shortly before  conference play started and has averaged 12.5 points per game in B1G Ten play.

But enough about them, let’s get back to the all out panic: On the SpreeCast last night, Scott asked when it became okay to be pissed off. For the first time all season, IU has lost two consecutive games. And though it was not exactly an upset that Indiana lost to the Buckeyes last night, the manner in which IU lost was certainly unsettling.  This game is important for a couple of reasons; 1) IU needs to defeat real live B1G Ten teams on the road and this is probably the easiest road game remaining. 2) IU needs to calm fears that we’re in the middle of another January swoon.

Stat to ponder while you’re working up the courage to call Crimsoncast Live: 1.13 points per possession. The Hoosiers defense has gone from a slight concern to a full out disaster. While the Hoosiers have remained decent at getting turnovers from opponents, conference opponents are both shooting exceptionally well(each is above 50% eFG) and rebounding their relatively few misses, (conference opponents are getting a rebound on roughly 33% of their misses.)  Nebraska gives IU a chance against an opponent who is not particularly good at either shooting or rebounding. If IU  continues to give up over 1.1 points per possession I’ll join the panic.

Scouting Future Opponents:

Penn State hosts Illinois on Thursday 

Wisconsin hosts Northwestern on Wednesday

Iowa visits Mackey Arena to take on Purdue on Tuesday night

Prediction: A win moves the fan base off the ledge and all sing kumbaya.  The Hoosiers have more trouble than we’d like, but in the end they finally win 82-67.