Opponent: Northwestern Wildcats(15-9,5-7)
Series History: IU leads 109-48
Last Meeting: The Wildcats edged IU in Bloomington 70-64 to sweep the season series for the first time in well probably ever.
Last IU Win: IU ended an 11 game losing streak to beat Northwestern 88-80 in overtime.  The win closed out the regular season. Many hoped that this would lead to some momentum in the B1G Ten tournament, but alas, IU lost to Northwestern by 15 five days later.

VJIII’s absence is the Ewing Theory on Steroids
    Assuming everyone is familiar with Bill Simmons’ Ewing theory of teams that play better without the “superstar” than they did with him. Though counter-intuitive, this actually makes sense.  When the dominant personality on a team goes down, the entire team fills the vacuum and everyone plays above his previous expectations.
    So what’s that have to do with Verdell Jones III? Well despite his numerous limitations, over the last four years it became quite clear that VJIII was probably the dominant personality on the squad. Unlike virtually every other player on the roster, Jones has never lacked the confidence or drive necessary to be a team leader.  (EVEN WHEN ALL EVIDENCE SCREAMED HE SHOULD IN FACT NOT BE SO DAMN CONFIDENT) There’s a reason he took the initial inbound pass against Kentucky and dribbled up court, where he was likely the number one scoring option had he not noticed Christian Watford. There’s a reason why when the shot clock winds down, all too often the ball ends up in his hands. I should point out that despite my frequent defense of him, I don’t think he’s best suited for this role. If IU needs someone to get to the rim, I’d much rather it be Victor Oladipo or Will Sheehey. If IU needs someone to take a tough shot, I’d much rather have just about anyone aside from Tom Pritchard.
   This is why Verdell’s “Ewing Theory” impact has been even greater than what you’d normally expect.  In general, the injured athlete is in fact the best player on the team. The reason people forecast doom is because obviously a team will miss it’s leading scorer, or top post player. In this case however, Verdell was far from the best player.  When other people had to fill the void, they were actually better than the original player.  Hopefully, the two games without him won’t be forgotten as he gets back into the rotation and Verdell can continue to evolve into a talented role player which is the role that suits him best.

Stat to distract you from those awful Jared jewlery commercials: Since Bruce Weber whined about the discrepancy in foul shots last week, I thought I’d look at how meaningful the discrepancy was. Taking just the conference games, IU leads the B1G Ten in Free Throws Made(216) Attempted(285) and Percentage(75.8%.) The Hoosiers are averaging 21.9 FTA/Game so far while IU opponents are averaging 19.8 FTA/game. So Bruce can quit whining. But the dramatic difference is comparing this year to last year. Last year, IU went to the free throw line 300 times in 18 games for an average of about 16.7 attempts per game but opponents went to the line an astounding 472 times, and average of 26.3 times per game.

Scouting Future Opponents:
1. Iowa travels to Penn State on Thursday
2. North Carolina Central faces North Carolina A&T  on Saturday
3. Minnesota faces THE Ohio State University on Tuesday

Prediction: The Bowling Ball with the Homer inscription will not pass muster as a Valentine’s Day gift, despite the obviously hysterical reference.
Northwestern strikes me as a less physical but more skilled Purdue team. IU will need to impose its’ physical strength much like it did against the Boilermakers. I think Northwestern makes IU sweat this out, but the Hoosiers pull away late in 2nd half and win 76-65.

Final Score:
Indiana:   84
Illinois:    71

No doubt coming into Thursday night’s game the biggest story of the game was going to be: Was Cody Zeller going to be able to hand the 7’1″ athletic freak that is, Meyers Leonard? Early on, it looked as if Zeller and the Hoosiers were going to have their hands full all night with the big man with the backwards name. Leonard had 9 points in the first seven minutes of the game and looked determined as ever to take it right at the Big Ten’s best freshman big man. Just as he has done all season, Zeller didn’t get rattled or fazed of Leonard’s early success. He simply just let the game play out.

After a back and forth first half, the Hoosiers starting to attack into the teeth of the Fighting Illini’s defense. Eight minutes into the second half, Indiana was already able to force Illinois into 8 team fouls, three of them by Leonard. After Meyers picked up his fourth foul and went to the bench, the Hoosiers slowly started to pull away from this Fighting Illini squad. Depth is a key problem for Illinois and it started to show late in the second half.

Indiana proved to be too much for Illinois. The key stat in this game were free throws. The Hoosiers shot just as many free throws as they did field goals (42), which is ridiculous if you think about it. To shoot as many as they did and still knock them down at 83% is impressive.

The Hoosiers brought a balanced attack that was ultimately just too much to handle. Hulls, Watford, Oladipo, and Zeller all had at least 15 points. It is always a good sign when your starting lineup attributes that much to a game. The bench didn’t do bad but, simply put, Indiana didn’t need them to score because of how well the others were playing.

IU will get its first weekend free from any games for the first time since the middle of December. The team looks no where near gassed, but an off weekend can be key for the Hoosiers to rest up after a rough stretch of games that have occurred in the past month and a half. I can remember last year when Tom Crean celebrated in the lobby with us when the Hoosiers knocked off Illinois last year. Oh, how times have changed.

Team Grade: A

Looking Forward- Next week, the Hoosiers get the last of the “single-play” games they will play this year when Northwestern comes to Bloomington on Wednesday. The Wildcats struggled at first in conference but have turned things around and won three in a row. They will face Purdue on Sunday, if you are interested in seeing what kind of team they bring. They will come into Assembly hungry as ever, trying to get their first ever tournament appearance. 

Opponent: Illinois Fighting Illini (16-7, 5-5)

Series Record: Tied 83-83

Last Meeting:3/5/11  The Illini thumped Indiana 72-48(and it wasn’t really that close,) to close out the regular season.

Last IU win: 1/27/11 A thrilling 52-49 victory which led to Hoosier students storming the court in celebration of IU’s first win over a ranked opponent in the Tom Crean era. Little did the students know there were going to be better reasons to storm the court in the next season.

A different team from last year:  If IU thinks it will be able to just breeze through a 52-49 walk in the park like last year, it has another thing coming.  This is a completely different Illinois team. The trio of Mike Davis, Mike Tisdale, and Demetri McCamey are gone. Their production has been mostly replaced by a new trio who is sure to be as big of a pain in the ass;  DJ Richardson, Brandon Paul,  and Meyers Leonard.  All three were with the team last year, but have taken on much larger roles this season.  Of the three, the 7’2″ Leonard’s ascent has been the most noticeable. He’s gone from averaging 2.1 points and 1.2 rebounds per game to 13.3 and 8.  To put that in perspective, it’s almost as good as replacing Bobby Capobianco’s production with Cody Zeller’s. Wouldn’t that be something if a team could manage that.

Stat to win friends and influence people:  The absolute takeaway from the Hoosiers win over Purdue was the defensive effort and execution fans have been clamoring for. IU held Purdue to .91 points per possession, almost .2 below their average. As a comparison, it was essentially like taking what IU has done on average all season and making it look like the Hoosiers did against Wisconsin.  What made it more impressive in my mind was that the Hoosiers forced only 3 turnovers. IU simply limited the good shots for most of the game, and when Purdue missed, IU didn’t allow many offensive rebounds.  If IU can play defense like that for the rest of the season, there are few teams who can match up to the Hoosiers firepower on offense.

Gratuitous Bruce Weber Cheap Shot: Unfortunately for Mr. Weber, his record is trending downward at the worst possible time. Weber is now in his 9th season as head coach of the Illini, he took over a loaded team from Bill Self and to his credit brought them to the doorstep of a National Championship in his 2nd year.  You might remember Sean May and the Tarheels beating Illinois in this game, if you do, you’re a better  fan than me. Since then his record has been mixed to say the least. He’s missed the tournament twice and last year’s run to the Sweet Sixteen with a senior laden squad was the only time he’s seen the 2nd weekend of the NCAA’s in the last 7 years.  And as the seat is getting warmer, he also has to deal with a new Athletic Director. Mike Thomas, came over from the University of Cincinnati and immediately began cleaning house by replacing the enigma known as Ron Zook.  Which leads me to….

Gratuitous Jack Trudeau cheap shot: You might remember the gratuitous cheap shots became an official headingafter Trudeau promised to “have his old buddy Zooker” run the score up on Kevin Wilson and the Hoosiers.  Well he might have accomplished that, but apparantly Wilson gets the last laugh as both Trudeau and Zooker were let go within weeks of each other. Far be it from me to do something as classless as kicking a man when he’s lost his job. But that’s why I trust in my readers to do it for me.

Scouting Future Opponents:

Northwestern Hosts Iowa Thursday at 9.

North Carolina Central hosts Savannah State on Saturday.  

Prediction: Much to my dismay, they won’t make Leonard Part 7.

   Though Meyers Leonard will pose an interesting and new challenge to IU’s talented freshman forward, the surrounding talent won’t be enough as Victor Oladipo continues his defensive renaissance in locking down Brandon Paul. IU wins 78-65.

Final Score:
Indiana:   78
Purdue:    61

The Super Bowl is the highlight of the weekend for Indiana citizens but this game comes in a close second. The two long time rivals squared off in a packed and loud Mackey Arena, which could have been the Hoosiers biggest test to date. IU has only recorded two B1G Ten road wins  (both against Penn State) in Tom Crean’s tenure at Indiana and people were starting to wonder if this team was even the “real deal” or just a really good home team. The Hoosiers brought it on Saturday and were able to pull ahead late to beat Purdue by 17 and get a crucial road conference win.

Much of this game can be credited to the play of Victor Oladipo. I have highlighted Victor’s poor play in recent posts but he showed off the #4 we saw in pre-conference play in this game. He finished with a career high 23 points to go along with 8 boards, 4 assists, and 2 blocks. That is a career night for the sophomore from Maryland. His decision making was the best I have seen out of him this season. If Purdue gave him the drive, he took it, but if help slid over, he was quick to find the open man.

Last post, I thought Remy played well enough against Michigan that he deserved more minutes. Crean even said he would look to get Abell the minutes he deserved because he liked what Remy did against the Wolverines. Coach didn’t lie. Remy recorded 19 minutes (his career high) and made they most of them. Abell had 13 points in those 19 minutes on 5-6 shooting from the field, none more important than the late three in the corner.

Another reason why this victory was impressive was that the Hoosiers got nothing offensively from Christian Watford. Watford had a couple good looks from three but never could get in rhythm. I still thought he played a good game but against stiffer competition we are going to need more from him and he knows that.

The victory was much needed not only for our road physique but especially needed to shut up the cattle herders up north. They cherished their 5-game win streak against the Hoosiers like we cherish our 5 banners. They can blame the refs all they want but in the end, the refs didn’t make you lose by 17, at home. Just wait until March 4th and the Hoosier Nation will show you how a real home crowd should be.

Looking Forward- After two straight road games, IU is back in Assembly to face the roller coaster ride that is this year’s Illinois team. They are 5-4 in conference but their only road win is against Northwestern. This will be a game the Hoosiers “should” win but the Illini do possess some quality players that can give the Hoosiers fits.

Final Score:
Michigan:   68
Indiana:      56

Time and time again this team finds ways to lose games on the road. After being down by 20, the Hoosiers crawl back to within two points and just three minutes left in the game. Then the following happens. Elston loses Hardaway on a Burke drive, Hardaway drains a three. Elston gets fouled and misses the front end of a one-and-one. Burke drives again, Elston turns and watches, Douglass floats to the open spot, Burke finds him…swish. Game over. Just like that, IU’s hopes for coming up with that big time road win fades away again.

I singled out Elston because he failed to play disciplined defense at the end of the game but really, the Hoosiers might not have been in that position if it wasn’t for him. He brought a much needed spark off the bench and you could see his confidence spilling over from the Iowa game. If he can stop his brain from wanting to go 400mph every time he catches the ball, he can be such a threat offensively. He is much improved defensively, but the team won’t win games, as you saw tonight, if you don’t lock up down the stretch.

Remy Abell needs to play more. His knowledge of the game isn’t the highest yet but that will come with teaching and experience. He has the physical tools and talent mixed with a heavy dose of confidence it takes to be a good Big Ten player. The combination of Oladipo and Abell could work, but I don’t see the point in putting two kids that bring you the same sort of skill set to play at the same time. With Oladipo’s current offensive woes, why not go with Abell?

There wasn’t a more disappointing performance tonight than the one Will Sheehey produced. His stat line read: 10 minutes, 0 points, 3 turnovers, and 2 fouls. This, obviously, wasn’t Will’s night. Sheehey provides so much energy that Indiana can’t afford to have him play like he did tonight. I hope he forgets about this game and brings it on Saturday night.

The most aggravating thing about this loss was the start IU had. They didn’t come out ready to play and it cost them in this game. You would think coming off a 100-point game against Iowa that this Hoosier squad would come out over-confident. Something about playing a road game scares this team and you can see that in their play. Until they truly believe they can win on the road, they will continue to come up short.

Team Grade: C

Looking Forward- Purdue week has officially started. Saturday is the first match-up of the season for the two biggest in-state rivals. Michigan may be more talented than Purdue but the Boilermakers will be playing in front of a packed and loud Mackey Arena. Should be a great game.

(Photo credit: AP Photo/Tony Ding)

Final Score:
Indiana:   103
Iowa:          89

Defense is overrated. All kidding aside, this game was defined by the outrageous offensive outputs these two teams put together. They combined to make 71 of the 121 (59%) shots they took. Iowa went on to shoot 63% for the game; 79% in the second half! That is some 1950s’ basketball shooting numbers. The more shocking thing was that although Iowa shot so well, this game never seemed that close.

The cause of this can be attributed to numerous things. The Hoosiers set up the perfect formula to drop 100 points on a Big Ten team for the first time since March of ’95. Good penetration + great interior passing = The Big Handsome destroying rims. Zeller finished shooting 11-12 from the night with seven dunks. Oladipo and Pritchard joined in the dunk party with a couple nasty put-back jams.

The Hoosiers didn’t shoot that well from the perimeter but it seemed like every shot that missed was rebounded by an Indiana player. IU had just as many OFFENSIVE rebounds (18) as Iowa had total rebounds to lead to 23 second-chance points. They had 20 assists (9 from Verdell) and forced Iowa into 17 turnovers. You win the rebounding battle, play unselfishly, and force turnovers, you are going to win.

Jordan Hulls and Matt Roth, I heard he had been sick, didn’t have the nights they hoped but Derek Elston and Tom Pritchard were there to pick them up. Elston fueled the crowd with 8 points and a block in about a minute. Pritchard got a standing ovation for his play.

This was a much needed win. Tom Crean changed the starting line-up for the first time all year and it looked like the Hoosiers got their swagger back. The key for them is to bring that same edge when they are away from Assembly Hall. Until then, this team will be stuck in the middle of the pack.

Team Grade: B+

Looking Forward- The Hoosiers can’t celebrate this victory too long as they have a tough week ahead of them. Two road games at Michigan and Purdue is a huge test for Indiana but provides an opportunity they can choose to either excel in or falter.

*Also- I will be trying out something new during the Michigan game called Tinychat. It is a free video chat room for all you Hoosier fans to go and get out your rants during the game. More details to come later. See ya Wednesday.

(Photo credit: AP Photo/Darron Cummings)

A few weeks back Tom Crean joined the crew from PTI on ESPN for “5 Good Minutes”.  Below is the video incase you missed it.

Since that appearance, IU lost 3 in a row and 4 out of their next 6.  Maybe there is a curse of PTI a’la the SI cover jinx!

Final Score:
Wisconsin:   57
Indiana:        50

This game played out like many expected it would. Low possessions, low scoring, and few turnovers is exactly the type of game Wisconsin plays for. Bo Ryan’s teams have always done three things extremely well:

1. They play true “team” defense.
2. They take care of the ball.
3. They have huge white dudes.

Everybody knew coming into the game that, although IU was the top scoring team in the conference, they wouldn’t be given any easy looks at the rim. That didn’t stop Verdell Jones from taking it right at the Badgers in the first half. He was super-impressive in the first half, to the point where I was screaming at Crean to get him back in the game. For the record, I have never done that in my life. If Oladipo can’t get out of his funk he has been in as of late, Verdell provides the Hoosiers’ only liable penetrator. Verdell played like a senior and was able to turn a lot of his haters to lovers for a brief period. He was shut down in the second half and could easily have been a vital reason for why the Hoosiers came up short Thursday night.

Cody Zeller never got going due to some, quite frankly, horrible calls by the joke they call Big Ten officiating. You could tell he was in no groove and it was never more evident than the air-ball he threw up in the biggest play of the game. After watching this game, Chad Ford may be rethinking about putting Cody so high on his draft board. The Wisconsin bigs, especially Jared Berrgren, stood strong and denied Cody on multiple lay-ups and dunk attempts.

The most impressive thing I found from this game was IU’s defense. Despite some breakdowns late in the game, this was the best team defense I have seen this team play against a team like Wisconsin. The Badgers don’t have the most elite offense, by far, but the Hoosiers showed so much improvement in this game from the Minnesota and Nebraska games. They were rotating so well and made Jordan Taylor’s night one to forget. However, all the positives can be overlooked because of the breakdowns late in the game, like giving Brust open threes or giving up crucial offensive rebounds late in the game.

All-in-all Indiana showed some grit and toughness in a somewhat hostile environment but are still a long way from being a team that can successfully win on the road. The tough part of their conference season is in the rear-view mirror and the rest of the way looks a lot less tough. It wouldn’t be far-fetched to believe this team could win out the rest of their regular season games. Their biggest challenges are gonna be Michigan State at home and Purdue and Michigan on the road, but those are all winnable for this team. The Big Ten is never that giving though, and I don’t expect them to actually win out but the real possibility of it happening is still reassuring.

Team Grade- C+

Looking Forward- Indiana is home Sunday to face the Hawkeyes of Iowa in a game the Hoosiers can’t afford to give away or the wheels may be coming off for this once top-ten team. Iowa is coming off back-to-back close losses to Purdue and Nebraska and I guarantee Melsahn Basabe doesn’t forget the Shee-bagging he got last year.

Photo credit: (AP Photo/Andy Manis)

Final Score:
Nebraska:   70
Indiana:       69

Indiana basketball is on the verge of a crisis. The team that won 15 of their first 16 games no longer looks fearless, confident, and assertive. They have transformed into the timid, sloppy, and passive team that Hoosier fans have become so accustomed to in the last 3 years. In the blink of an eye, IU is on a 3-game losing streak and what looked like a Year For the Ages type of season is well out the window.

So who is to blame? I have about 50 answers to that question but I am going to put my 3 most important reasons for their recent play.

1. Tom Crean. I have backed Crean throughout his whole career but I have to finally take my blinders off and it’s time for me to be critical of him. This team’s lack of adjustment before/during the game is aggravating beyond measure. It is so easy for a team to scout us because we aren’t going to change anything offensively. If teams are going to hedge our handoffs and ballscreens, how about game-planning a counter play for that hedge or simply try running a different offense. Jordan Hulls is an excellent shooter but he is not going to be able to dribble around the huge, athletic big men in the Big Ten.
2. The players. While it is Crean’s job to put the player’s in a position to succeed, it ultimately comes down to their execution. Crean can bark at Watford and Zeller to block out all he wants, but if they don’t have the hustle or determination to do so, it won’t get done. Communication can be hard in a college atmosphere, but the good teams get it done. IU should have watched Michigan against Michigan State to see how a real team can execute defensively down the stretch, even if it’s a broken play.
3. Lack of leadership. Compare our big wins to our big losses. UK- Verdell and Watford stay calm and connect to create what is known as “The Shot.” OSU- IU comes up with the clutch free throws and the big defensive stops  it needed. MICH- Verdell hits the most clutch shot of his career and Watford hits a free throw to make it a 3-point game. And the losses: MINN- IU almost makes a great comeback but when they need a three the most, they settle for a contested three by Watford, which he misses. NEB- Cody Zeller disappears and Jordan tries to play hero but can’t come through. Add on a ton of defensive breakdowns by many players and you deserved to get court rushed. Leadership doesn’t always have to be during clutch moments, but those are when it can have the biggest effect.

If I were coach what would I do?

• If I’m not getting anything valuable out of Verdell, or any other player for that matter, then I don’t play him and try someone else. Simple as that.
• If I have a timeout at the end of the game down by 1, I’m calling it every time.
• If you don’t want to box out or play defense, you are coming out.
• I put in designed plays to get my best offensive player the ball and continue to run them until they stop it.

IU has essentially played better than anyone expected them to play at the beginning. Only to then, turn that on its self, and play worse than anyone could have expected. Is this team a top-caliber team? Or just middle of the pack? The next games will answer that for us, because right now I’m sure we are all confused who this team really is.

Looking Forward- IU is back home on Sunday for a noon tip-off game against Penn State. If IU loses this one, IU fans will be in complete panic-mode.

Opponent: Nebraska Cornhuskers (9-8, 1-5 in B1G Ten) 

Series History:  IU leads 8-1. Not a lot to be pulled from this. The Hoosiers and Huskers have played only twice since the end of WWII.

Last Meeting: December 30,  1982. IU won 67-50.

So what to learn of the 12 member of the B1G Ten: Nebraska has been pretty much as advertised in its initial season with the conference. In the last 5 seasons in the Big 12, Nebraska finished anywhere from 7th to 12th. The Huskers are led by senior guard Bo Spencer’s 14.8 points per Game. 5’11″  Freshman guard Toney McCray broke into the starting lineup shortly before  conference play started and has averaged 12.5 points per game in B1G Ten play.

But enough about them, let’s get back to the all out panic: On the SpreeCast last night, Scott asked when it became okay to be pissed off. For the first time all season, IU has lost two consecutive games. And though it was not exactly an upset that Indiana lost to the Buckeyes last night, the manner in which IU lost was certainly unsettling.  This game is important for a couple of reasons; 1) IU needs to defeat real live B1G Ten teams on the road and this is probably the easiest road game remaining. 2) IU needs to calm fears that we’re in the middle of another January swoon.

Stat to ponder while you’re working up the courage to call Crimsoncast Live: 1.13 points per possession. The Hoosiers defense has gone from a slight concern to a full out disaster. While the Hoosiers have remained decent at getting turnovers from opponents, conference opponents are both shooting exceptionally well(each is above 50% eFG) and rebounding their relatively few misses, (conference opponents are getting a rebound on roughly 33% of their misses.)  Nebraska gives IU a chance against an opponent who is not particularly good at either shooting or rebounding. If IU  continues to give up over 1.1 points per possession I’ll join the panic.

Scouting Future Opponents:

Penn State hosts Illinois on Thursday 

Wisconsin hosts Northwestern on Wednesday

Iowa visits Mackey Arena to take on Purdue on Tuesday night

Prediction: A win moves the fan base off the ledge and all sing kumbaya.  The Hoosiers have more trouble than we’d like, but in the end they finally win 82-67.