Bracketology

Bracket Update – 02.24.18 pregame0

Here’s the bracket update from right before the start of the Saturday games. Only one at large change in the field, as Providence slid off the bubble and Marquette took their place.

Last Four In: Texas, Syracuse, LSU, Marquette

First Four Out: Providence, Utah, USC, Temple

Bracket Update – 02.19.180

The games are all done for the weekend, and so here’s where we stand heading into next week. I went through and scrubbed some lines, and re-evaluated my stance on a few teams, which is why you see a decent amount of shuffling in this bracket from the previous one. I also decided to move UCLA out of the field and bring LSU in as the last at-large, and move Baylor (barely) into the safe part of the field and drop Providence into the last four in.

Cincinnati’s loss to Wichita State brought the two teams closer, with Wichita now on the 4 line and Cincinnati on the 3. Duke’s victory over Clemson gives them a much-needed tier-1 win and moves them ahead of Purdue, but that’s just a selection thing and not a seeding thing, since both are on the 2 line as of now.

Florida State drops a bit in this projection, but even here as a 6 seed, they’re still higher in my bracket than what you see in the Bracket Matrix average. I am not sure why everyone else has them rated so low. It’s the opposite situation with Arkansas — they are a consensus 8 seed in Bracket Matrix, but I had them as an 11 in the last bracket, and a 10 in this one, and it’s hard to see the argument for moving them much beyond that.

Lots of games left! Lots of time for things to switch around.

So here’s where we stand:

Last Four In: Providence, Texas, Syracuse, LSU

First Four Out: UCLA, USC, Utah, Temple

Bracket update – 2/18/18 Before the Games0

Here’s the post-Saturday, pre-Sunday bracket update. I will have another update after today’s slate of games.

Last Four In: Baylor, Texas, Syracuse, UCLA

First Four our: Utah, Temple, Louisville, USC

Others in consideration: Penn State, Washington, Marquette, Nebraska

Because of how the play-in games have to be set in this version of the bracket, two teams (New Mexico State and Middle Tennessee) got elevated up a seed line.

 

1 Virginia
1 Villanova
1 Xavier
1 Kansas
2 Texas Tech
2 North Carolina
2 Cincinnati
2 Purdue
3 Auburn
3 Duke
3 Michigan State
3 Arizona
4 Clemson
4 West Virginia
4 Tennessee
4 Gonzaga
5 Wichita State
5 Ohio State
5 Florida State
5 Nevada
6 Rhode Island
6 Creighton
6 Kentucky
6 Texas A&M
7 TCU
7 Florida
7 Missouri
7 Oklahoma
8 Alabama
8 Butler
8 Arizona State
8 Michigan
9 Miami
9 Houston
9 Seton Hall
9 St. Mary’s
10 Virginia Tech
10 North Carolina State
10 Kansas State
10 Providence
11 St. Bonaventure
11 Arkansas
12 Baylor
12 Texas
12 Syracuse
12 UCLA
11 New Mexico State
11 MTSU
12 Vermont
12 Loyola-Chicago
13 Louisiana
13 Murray State
13 ETSU
13 Montana
14 South Dakota State
14 Buffalo
14 UC Santa Barbara
14 Bucknell
15 Rider
15 Florida Gulf Coast
15 Charleston
15 Winthrop
16 Wright State
16 Pennsylvania
16 Wagner
16 Nicholls State
16 Savannah State
16 Southern

Final Bracket 03.12.170

This is our official, Bracket Matrix submitted bracket projection, going in to the selection show.

Here is the bracket. Below that is the full seed list.

Last Four In: VCU, Wake Forest, Providence, Southern Cal

First Four Out: Illinois State, Illinois, Syracuse, Iowa

Seed List 1-68:

1 Villanova
2 Kansas
3 Duke
4 Gonzaga
5 North Carolina
6 Arizona
7 Kentucky
8 Oregon
9 Baylor
10 UCLA
11 Louisville
12 Butler
13 Florida State
14 Notre Dame
15 West Virginia
16 Florida
17 Purdue
18 Minnesota
19 Virginia
20 Iowa State
21 SMU
22 Cincinnati
23 Wisconsin
24 Michigan
25 Maryland
26 Creighton
27 Wichita State
28 Miami
29 St Mary’s
30 Marquette
31 Northwestern
32 Oklahoma State
33 Arkansas
34 South Carolina
35 Virginia Tech
36 Michigan State
37 Dayton
38 Xavier
39 Seton Hall
40 Vanderbilt
41 Rhode Island
42 Kansas State
43 VCU
44 Wake Forest
45 Providence
46 Southern Cal
47 Middle Tennessee
48 Nevada
49 UNC Wilmington
50 Princeton
51 East Tennessee State
52 Bucknell
53 Vermont
54 Winthrop
55 New Mexico State
56 Iona
57 Florida Gulf Coast
58 Northern Kentucky
59 Kent State
60 North Dakota
61 Texas Southern
62 South Dakota State
63 Troy
64 Jacksonville State
65 New Orleans
66 UC Davis
67 North Carolina Central
68 Mount St Mary’s
1s: Villanova, Kansas, Duke, Gonzaga
2s: UNC, Arizona, Kentucky, Oregon
3s: Baylor, UCLA, Louisville, Butler
4s: Florida State, Notre Dame, West Virginia, Florida
5s: Purdue, Minnesota, Virginia, Iowa State
6s: SMU, Cincinnati, Wisconsin, Michigan
7s: Maryland, Creighton, Wichita State, Miami
8s: St. Mary’s, Marquette, Northwestern, Oklahoma State
9s: Arkansas, South Carolina, Virginia Tech, Michigan State
10s: Dayton, Xavier, Seton Hall, Vanderbilt
11s: Rhode Island, Kansas State, Middle Tennessee State, VCU, Providence
12s: Wake Forest, USC, Nevada, UNC-Wilmington, Princeton
13s: Vermont, Winthrop, East Tennessee State, Bucknell
14s: Iona, New Mexico State, Florida Gulf Coast, Northern Kentucky
15s: South Dakota State, Texas Southern, Kent State, North Dakota
16s: Troy, Jacksonville State, New Orleans, UC Davis, NC Central, Mount St. Marys
NOTES
  • The first two one seeds are easy. The next four teams are hard. I went back and forth for a couple of hours on an order, and I’m still not totally sold on it. I think the committee will reward Duke’s top 50 wins and better away wins, and i think they’ll reward Gonzaga for only losing one game. That ends up making UNC the first 2 seed and Arizona the second 2 seed. I think if I was bracketing based upon my own interpretations (as opposed to trying to project the committee), I’d probably have the line ordered Villanova, Kansas, Duke, UNC, Arizona, Gonzaga.
  • The last four teams in changed a little bit, as I looked at numbers more closely. I think today’s win moved Rhode Island up slightly, and dropped VCU down slightly, as the first team in the last four in. I also became less enamored with Wake Forest’s profile the more I looked at it, so they got bumped down.
  • Of the teams not in my field that I’m the most concerned about, it’s Syracuse and Illinois State, for totally different reasons. If the committee opts for top 50 wins, Syracuse is getting in and someone’s getting bounced…maybe USC. Although that would leave the Pac 12 with only three teams, which also seems unlikely.