It’s time for a special edition of the Bracket Report. For the rest of this week, we’ll be starting off every morning with an updated view of the bracket, accounting for the wins and losses of the previous night. Here’s where we stand as of Sunday morning, March 4:

REARRANGING THE ICING: Kansas and Michigan State have landed the third and fourth 1 seeds in our latest bracket. Why not North Carolina? Well, the Tar Heels have worse numbers than Michigan State, almost across the board. And yes, North Carolina has “looked better” in abstract, but that’s been against a significantly weaker ACC — and, frankly, a Duke team that’s highly inconsistent and a bit overrated. if Michigan State loses today to Ohio State, then UNC probably slips by them, but I still think that the Spartans are a better resume choice than North Carolina. Elsewhere, Ohio State falls to eight on the S-curve, so they get plopped into Kentucky’s bracket.

MY FRIEND THE UPSET: Personally, I’m looking forward to some upsets, just to knock the bottom of the bubble out of contention. I’ve chuckled at the TV talking heads talking about Northwestern, Seton Hall, Virginia, and Colorado State being in trouble — folks, they’re all in. The quality of the bubble is so bad that our lower-level play-in game consists of Texas and Arizona, neither of whom should be sniffing the tournament in a normal year. So the thought here is that upsets need to start happening in otherwise one-bid leagues. We lost one of those on Saturday when Murray State held on to win the Ohio Valley Conference. We’ve got another one on the slate today, as Creighton (who’s in regardless) faces off against Illinois State. Haters of bad bubble teams, root vociferously for the Redbirds! There are a few other possibilities – Harvard *might* warrant an at-large (although I doubt it), Long Beach State *might* warrant an at-large (again, doubt it), and…well, that might be it for the smaller conferences. The next chance at knocking out bad bubble teams might be upsets in the Mountain West, A-10, and Conference USA.

LAST FOUR IN/OUT: My last four in were (in order) Seton Hall, St. Joseph’s, Arizona, and Texas. I’m not impressed with any of these teams, but they have a better case than the first four out which are Xavier, Miami, South Florida, and UCF. It’s a very fluid situation, though. Xavier has been in every field I’ve put together so far, but their continued struggles against subpar competition were finally too much to handle. Of the “out” group, I think Xavier’s got the best chance of moving back up. For the curious, the next four out were Oregon, Tennessee, VCU, and Illinois.

There was a lot of chaos in college basketball this past week, with teams putting themselves in good position (Kansas, Miami, South Florida, Washington, Iowa State, Purdue), falling off the table (California, Middle Tennessee State, Connecticut, George Mason), and in some rare cases, doing both in an eight-day period (Iowa, Illinois). Let’s take a look at the most recent bracket projection:

Scrambling the Top: As has been the case for the last month, Kentucky seems locked in the South and Syracuse in the East — although Kyle brings up an interesting point in that Kentucky is actually closer to St. Louis than Atlanta, so we might see the NCAA put Kentucky there. Either way, those two teams are set. But the next six spots are a huge jumbled mess right now, and it’s hard to say who emerges in what order at this stage. This week, as it was last week, the last two #1 seeds go to Michigan State and Duke, who both have sizable resume advantages. To my mind, Kansas is next in line, so they get the “5th 1 seed” status in the West, opposite Duke. Missouri ranks next, then UNC. Why are the Tar Heels so low? A lack of Top 50 wins — among the fewest in the RPI top 20. Ohio State rounds up the pack in 8th…but Ohio State could still get a 1 seed if they beat Michigan State on the road and then follow that up by getting to the Big Ten title game.

That’s Logistics: Miami snuck back into the bracket with their win versus Florida State, which necessitated a huge shift in a bunch of teams’ bracket placement. Northwestern was a true 11 seed but had to be moved down two seed lines to avoid a Big Ten opponent and ended up in the play-in game — and while that violates some bracketing rules, it does so in order to NOT violate other bracketing rules; namely that the “First Four” games have to be split between Thursday and Friday sites, if not all in Friday sites (for travel purposes). But the big problem here is that the least desirable geographical pods (Portland and Albuquerque) are going to be given to the 4/5 seed pods…which is exactly where the 12 and 13 seed play-in games will end up. So what we may be looking at is the committee artificially moving play-in games up to the 11 seed line…which, frankly, defeats the purpose of having the play-in games in the first place.

Mountain Destitute: It was a rough week for The Mountain in terms of seeding. Going in to last week, the conference had a great chance of landing two protected seeds (UNLV and New Mexico). Now, they might get zero. UNLV still has a chance, but New Mexico probably topped themselves out at a 6 seed with their road losses this past week.

That’s One Solution: One of the nice things about this time of year is the conference tournaments yield upsets, which take away bubble spots, which keeps us from wasting valuable time arguing with ourselves whether Washington deserves that last bid over Colorado State. As of now, I am hoping for three major upsets which turn one-bid leagues into multi-bid leagues — that would clear quite a bit of the chaff off the bottom of the bubble. The conferences with the best chances for this to happen are the Ohio Valley Conference (Murray State looks ready for another loss), the West Coast Conference (can Loyola Marymount or USF string a few victories together?), the Atlantic 10 (which is a mess, but still), and Conference USA.

This Week: The teams with the best chance of improving their seeding are probably Iowa State (at Missouri, vs Baylor), Ohio State (at Northwestern, at Michigan State), Indiana (Michigan State, Purdue), Illinois (Michigan, at Wisconsin), and South Florida (at Louisville, West Virginia).

Last Four In: Miami, Xavier, Texas, Washington

Last Four Out: Colorado State, Arizona, UCF, South Florida

On the latest edition of the Bracketology Show, Galen and the Committee  break down the tidal wave of poor road losses from the past week, while previewing the upcoming conference tournaments. Our first guest, Troy Machir from NBC Sports’ CollegeBasketballTalk, speaks with us about the teams flying under the radar, the players that could emerge to an unknowing country in March Madness, and the conference tournament he’d most be interested in attending.

We’re then joined by John Gasaway of Basketball Prospectus and ESPN Insider. John talks with us about the NCAA’s media selection committee process and what he learned from that. We then start talking about some of the notable teams on the national scene, including New Mexico’s poor last week and Kentucky’s level of excellence. We wrap up by talking some Big Ten, including whether Illinois is still in the picture for an at-large bid.

Following that, we talk about some of the big conferences and where they’re at right now, before previewing this week’s conference tournament play. We also give you an expanded version of “Games You Must Watch”. All that and more, on this week’s episode of the Bracketology Show!

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BracketBusters has come and gone, and we’re now officially rounding the final turn into the last three weeks of the college basketball season. Selection Sunday is in 20 days! Hard to believe.

Here’s this week’s bracket:

Madness?: No, this is the Spartans. Back from an 0-2 start, Michigan State has finally moved into the fourth #1 seed position. Their resume looks better every week, they have the inside track to win the toughest conference in the country, and they get their primary competition for that title (Ohio State) at home down the stretch. It also helps that Ohio State is MSU’s primary competition for a #1 seed. Duke has also swung back into a #1 seed — as David said on the BracketPod, they have beaten Michigan State, Michigan, Kansas, and North Carolina AWAY from home this year. Who else can say that?

So what about Missouri?: Currently, the Tigers sit in fifth place on the S-curve. They’ve got a LOT of national momentum, but their resume just doesn’t stack up to Michigan State or Ohio State, and I’m curious to see how they handle Kansas on the road.

Oh wow, it’s you again: I’ve been railing against the Pac 12 all season. And it’s still not a good conference, believe me. But I’m having trouble with the bottom of the at-large field now, because as unimpressive as some of these Pac 12 resumes are, they’re starting to look more consistent than their competition. Washington made it into the bracket this week, and Oregon barely got left out. Arizona is slowly assembling a bottom-of-the-field type of resume. And California continues to win games. I used to think the Pac 12 was destined to one shameful bid. Now they could get two or three, which would be a real shame.

The first law of bracketology: There’s a lot of doomsayers in the bracket world, and many like to talk about games being “must-win” or losses being “crippling” to seeding or bid chances. But remember the first law of bracketology — Thou Shalt Not Overreact To Any One Game. We’ve seen Northwestern given the last rites about six different times this year, yet they are still solidly in my field. Indiana got blown out at Iowa, and it was a very disappointing loss for the Hoosiers, but it was only one game, on the road, against a team that is sniffing around the Top 100. Miami followed up their win at Duke with close losses at Florida State and at home to UNC, and people started tweeting about their demise (nonsense!). As bad as losses may look, they’re often times not.

Rising: The teams who helped themselves out the most this week were New Mexico, Wichita State, and Michigan. The Lobos have gone from questionable 10/11 seed range to 6-7 seed range, and still have room to climb. Wichita State’s dismantling of Davidson should put them solidly on the 4 line. Meanwhile, Michigan’s hot streak has pushed them up into 3 seed range.

Falling: Baylor is dropping like a rock, mostly due to their resume being devoid of any wins over potential seeds better than 7. Mississippi State and Alabama are really struggling right now, and don’t have a great deal on their resume to back themselves up. The trios of teams from the Big Ten (Illinois, Northwestern, Minnesota) and Big East (Seton Hall, Cincinnati, Connecticut) continue to do significant damage to themselves, and the Gophers actually dropped out of the bracket this week.

Last Four In: Xavier, Seton Hall, Washington, St. Joseph’s

Last Four Out: UCF, Oregon, Colorado State, Minnesota

The Bracketology Show is back, and what a show it was! We were joined by two awesome guests – Mike Miller of NBC Sports, who talked with us about winners and losers from the Bracket Busters, the current #1 seed situation, and the most entertaining conference tournaments coming up this March. We were also joined by statistical guru Ken Pomeroy, who gave us his unique and interesting takes on a variety of topics, including New Mexico’s standing in his ratings system, the current state of quantitative college basketball statistics, and the team he things is flying the most under the radar for the tournament (note: this one may very well surprise you).

We also take in the full smorgasboard of college basketball, talking everything from South Florida’s at-large chances to Drexel and Long Beach State’s standing in the S-curve hierarchy. That and much much more, only on the Bracketology Show!

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This was a relatively stable week in BracketVille. Although Ohio State’s loss shuffled the top three, they didn’t change seeds. Creighton took a tumble after a pretty bad week was capped off with a drubbing at the hands of Wichita State. And Texas and Seton Hall climbed back into the field, although neither did so with much fanfare.

Cougar Headaches: One of the more unpleasant aspects of doing Bracketology every year is dealing with BYU and their “special needs” when it comes to bracketing. For those of you who are unaware, BYU requires that they never play on Sunday due to religious obligation. So every year that the Cougars are eligible for a bid, we end up having to do bracket gymnastics trying to find a site that appeases them. What this requires is finding a pod for them which plays on Thursday/Saturday, AND which feeds into a Regional that plays Thursday/Saturday. If that sounds simple, it’s not — since the pods are uncoupled from the regions, and since they are largely decided based on the conference affiliation of the protected seeds, and since the pod orientation is almost always decided based on who the top four seeds are (and trickles down from there)…what we end up with is a mess. Like this week! BYU was one of my last four in, which should land them in a play-in game. However, the only 4/5 pod that they could fit into was the Louisville/Boston pod…and that created havoc elsewhere thanks to the overabundance of Big East teams. So the Cougars get bumped OUT of the play-in game, down to a 13 seed, where they play Wisconsin.

Baylor scares: Scott Drew’s team presents an interesting challenge. Everyone seems convinced that they’re actually a top 10 team, yet they’ve done nothing to actually prove that this season. They’ve had exactly four games against really top-shelf competition, and they’ve lost all four. They now have no opportunities left to get a big win before the Big 12 tournament. We talked about this as a possible 1 seed just a few weeks ago. Is it now possible that they might not even garner a 3 seed?

Unevenly distributed: The Big Ten has nine teams in this field once again, and I don’t see that changing unless Minnesota or Illinois really falls off the map. It’s interesting to see how the teams are clustered, though. The conference has five teams in the top four seed lines, and three of them (Wisconsin, Michigan, Indiana) are frankly difficult to distinguish for seeding purposes. Then there’s a huge gap before you get to the next team (Purdue, at a 9 seed), followed by a cluster of teams in the 10-12 range.

Arrivals: Texas, Seton Hall

Departures: Colorado State, Central Florida

Big Ten (9): Ohio State, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Michigan, Indiana, Purdue, Illinois, Northwestern, Minnesota

Big East (9): Syracuse, Marquette, Georgetown, Louisville, Notre Dame, West Virginia, Connecticut, Cincinnati, Seton Hall

Big 12 (6): Kansas, Missouri, Baylor, Kansas State, Iowa State, Texas

SEC (5): Kentucky, Florida, Vanderbilt, Mississippi State, Alabama

ACC (5): Duke, North Carolina, Florida State, Virginia, Miami

Mountain West (3): New Mexico, UNLV, San Diego State

Atlantic 10 (3): St. Louis, Temple, Xavier

West Coast Conference (3): St. Mary’s, Gonzaga, BYU

Missouri Valley (2): Wichita State, Creighton

Conference USA (2): Memphis, Southern Mississippi

Another rollicking edition of the Bracketology Show is in the books, and there’s so much to talk about that we nearly had to extend the show! (Don’t worry, we didn’t — two hours is probably as much as anyone can bear)

On this edition, Galen and The Committee are joined by Matt Norlander of CBS Sports, and he talks with us about a variety of issues, including who currently gets the fourth #1 seed, where the vast middle of the Big Ten is destined to end up, and what the heck is going on with the Atlantic 10 and Mountain West conferences.

We also talk about Baylor’s trevails in the last week, the deal with North Carolina, the surprising swoon from Creighton, and the emergence of ESPN’s new BPI ratings system. As always, we couple these and other topics with analysis and commentary on all levels of college basketball, from the biggest conferences to the one-bid leagues.

Be sure to check us out on iTunes at http://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast//id485301452. And as always, thanks for listening! Be sure to join us on the live show next week, from 9-11 pm.

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Another BracketPod is in the cybersphere! The podcast version of the now-live Bracketology Show aired rather early on Super Bowl Sunday, but that didn’t stop us from touching on a whole host of important issues, from the current state of the #1 seeds to the encroaching bizarrity that the Big East might be facing. We also dive in to the latest refereeing controversy, the impact of recent losses (and wins) in the Big Ten, the Mountain West’s hierarchy, the situation in the Atlantic 10, and more.

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The Monday Bracket Report is back, and we’re starting to hone in on a future for the 2012 NCAA tournament field. Only two teams dropped out of the at-large field this week, and the seeding didn’t shift around quite as dramatically as we’ve seen in the recent past.

In: Miami, Northwestern

Out: Seton Hall, Texas

Just the jumbles, the jumbles!: One thing is certain – the top three #1 seeds are Kentucky, Ohio State, and Syracuse, in some order. Which order? That’s up for debate. But those three teams are ahead of everyone else — and therein lies the jumble, because there’s whole lotta “everyone else” below. By my count, there are six teams with legitimate shots at the fourth #1 seed, and those teams seem mostly interested in hot potatoing that spot around between them. Last week it was Duke, who promptly clanked their way to yet another ACC home loss, this time to previously middling Miami. Kansas could’ve moved into the spot, but they of course blew a late lead and lost to Missouri. Now the Tigers are back in it, but they have to keep up the intensity against a sneaky difficult Big 12 slate. This week, the nod goes to North Carolina for the fourth #1 seed, but frankly it’s a weak recommendation — this UNC team just doesn’t seem like top seed material. Then again, neither does anyone else in the conversation.

Big East oddity: Here’s a conference that is probably going to land seven to nine teams in the dance, yet of those teams, only Syracuse might end up with a protected seed (i.e., seeded four or above). Currently, Georgetown is in that territory, and Marquette is right around the edges, but both teams have some difficulty on the upcoming schedule, and have resumes that might be eclipsed by other teams in that range (such as Indiana, Wisconsin, Florida, Vanderbilt) if those squads get hot.

It really is the bottom: The lower ranges of the bubble continue to create fear and loathing. Miami got in this week simply by picking up a big road win — which is what you’re supposed to do, but the problem is that they had almost nothing of note on their resume beforehand. Northwestern got back in after doing the same, and suddenly their resume doesn’t look that bad. They absolutely have to win at least four more conference games to be seriously considered, but at least that victory at Illinois kept them in the conversation. Outside of that, it’s head-scratchingly bad. Wyoming? California? Arizona? Marshall? Not at this point, no.

It was quite an interesting week in college basketball, as several teams vying for positioning couldn’t get out of their own way. A few teams on the outside of the bubble fought themselves in, but all that did was muddle the middle of the field even more. Here’s this week’s projection:

DUKE AGAIN? Yes, the Blue Devils are back on the 1-seed line, although that’s more due to the teams above them (Kansas and Missouri) faltering. At this point you have to like the Blue Devils’ resume, although if everything holds as it is now, it will be interesting to see if the committee actually gives the fourth one-seed nod to Duke. While they have obviously put together an impressive group of wins, there’s a definite perception around this team that they’re not as strong as those in the same conversation. Their KenPom defensive efficiency numbers are decidedly un-Duke like, and the aforementioned perception might end up dropping them to the 2 or 3 line.

WHEN MID-MAJORS ATTACK: There is a growing core of mid-major teams in the top 25 of the S-Curve who could make for some interesting seeding once Selection Sunday rolls around. UNLV, Creighton, Wichita State, San Diego State, St. Mary’s, Gonzaga, and Murray State are all jockeying for position, and teams like UNLV and Creighton are definite threats to make the top three lines.

DON’T HIT THE PANIC BUTTON: A lot of fans out there (and media, for that matter) have started acting nervous and jumpy about their respective teams’ NCAA tournament chances after a bad loss or two. In Indiana, it got so bad that the Indianapolis Star went to the trouble of running a story that worriedly indicated that the Hoosiers’ date with the tournament wasn’t a done deal yet. Well, folks…yes,  yes it is. One of the benefits of doing bracketology in January is that you become very familiar with the resumes of all the possible tournament entrants, and the Hoosiers (and the Bearcats, and UConn, and the Illini, and…you get the idea) are all still safely in. So don’t panic, unless you root for Northwestern or a Pac 12 team.